A growing number of Kenyans are expressing deep concern over the country’s trajectory, with a majority feeling that the nation is steadily moving in the wrong direction.

This is according to the latest findings from the Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) National Public Issues Survey, whose second release, published on Wednesday, May 28, 2025, revealed that the perception is largely driven by rising economic pressure, the high cost of living, and widespread dissatisfaction with leadership.

“Asked about the country’s current direction, a sizeable majority of Kenyans believe that it is ‘wrong’, five times more than the fewer than one-fifth of a contrary (positive) view. This leaves the remainder either with no clear opinion about this reality or who are unwilling to express one,” the survey read.

The survey reveals that 75 per cent of respondents believe Kenya is heading in the wrong direction, a figure that dwarfs the 14 per cent who said the country is on the right track.

A further 11 per cent either had no opinion or declined to express one.

The report attributes this bleak outlook largely to the public’s lived economic realities, with cost-of-living concerns dominating the national conversation.

Notably, TIFA found a strong correlation between an individual’s current financial standing and their view of the country’s general direction.

 “Ten times more of those who say they are now better off than they were three years ago consider the country’s direction as ‘right’ than do those who think that it is ‘wrong’ (52 per cent vs. 5 per cent),” the survey notes.

On the other hand, those who reported a decline in their economic situation were significantly more likely to view the country’s trajectory negatively.

“Nearly three times as many of those who report their economic situation as having worsened feel the country is headed in the ‘wrong direction’ as compared with those who say they are now better off (86 per cent vs. 31 per cent),” TIFA added.

Among the small minority who said the country is on the right path, several factors were cited to support this belief.

These include the perceived stabilisation in the cost of living (27 per cent), progress in infrastructure projects (11 per cent), and what some considered effective national leadership (8 per cent).

However, for the majority who felt otherwise, the very same issue—cost of living—was the leading reason for their dissatisfaction, cited four times more than the next concern, which was poor leadership (44 per cent vs. 11 per cent).

Regional optimism

Regionally, optimism was found to be concentrated in specific zones.

Residents of the Northern and Central Rift recorded the highest positive ratings at 32 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively.

Tifa insisted that the support from Central Rift was politically aligned, given that it is widely viewed as the President’s stronghold.

In Northern Kenya, the improvement in sentiments was partially attributed to recent government directives easing the process of obtaining national identification cards and eliminating previously burdensome vetting procedures.

“Given the latter is the President’s ‘backyard’, its leading-positive position is expected, while that of Northern’s second-place is less clear, though the President’s recent announcement that national IDs will now be issued to residents there without extra (and time-consuming) vetting may help to explain this.”

By contrast, regions such as Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya and Nairobi registered the most critical outlooks, with 81 per cent of respondents in each of those areas saying the country is heading in the wrong direction.

“Right direction’ ratings are quite low everywhere else, with the most negative ratings among those living in Lower Eastern, Mt. Kenya and Nairobi (81% ‘wrong direction’ in all three],” the survey added.