Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has dismissed fears of an imminent spike in fuel prices amid shortage concerns, with some critics arguing that the government is not prepared for the looming crisis.

Taking to his official X account on Thursday, March 12, 2026, the former president William Ruto’s senior economic advisor assured motorists that this week’s price review is unlikely to reflect the global oil market tensions that have triggered concern across the region.

Kuria said Kenya’s fuel pricing mechanism makes it impossible for global shocks to immediately affect pump prices, urging the public not to panic over speculation circulating online.

“In this era where everyone is an expert at everything, it’s tempting to doubt your own knowledge when the uninformed pose as professors. I understand the oil industry very well, having worked in the industry since 1994 and as a banker to the oil producers later. There is no way on earth there will be a major spike in the price of fuel in this week’s review,” Kuria stated.

M-Minus One formula

According to Kuria, the country’s pricing system is based on the M-Minus One formula, meaning the prices set in a given month are determined by shipping costs from the previous month.

He explained that the March pricing cycle is largely based on February fuel shipments, which were dispatched before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

“Firstly, our domestic supply chain is based on the M-minus-one formula, meaning the price in March is based on February shipping, which is pre-Iran war. Maybe minor variations based on logistical diversions post-sailing or insurance escalations, which is normal,” he said.

Kuria noted that any effects from the geopolitical situation would only be felt weeks later when new shipments reflecting current global prices arrive at the port of Mombasa.

G-to-G framework

Kuria further pointed to the G-to-G framework that allows Kenya to source fuel directly from national oil companies such as ADNOC and Saudi Aramco.

He argued that the arrangement significantly reduces the risk of supply shocks compared to systems that rely heavily on global commodity traders.

“Secondly, our G to G is with National Producer companies like ADNOC and Saudi Aramco with zero chance for artificial arbitrage or supply shocks, unlike our neighbours who are servicing through traders like Vittol,” he stated.

“So if one wants to spread despondency to our motorists, let them wait for some 4 more weeks for the Iran crisis impact to land in Mombasa. On this one, it is not a crisis unless you hear from me.”

His remarks come as Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi convened an emergency meeting with oil marketers amid concerns over potential supply disruptions.

The meeting followed earlier consultations between the ministry and companies supplying oil to Kenya under the government-to-government fuel importation arrangement.

Middle East conflict

This follows the situation in the Middle East, which is very dire, with Iran issuing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a passage responsible for 21 per cent of the global oil supply, as a result of the conflict in the region.

The large producers of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have experienced logistical problems and a reduction of production caused by limited access to tankers and increased dangers to infrastructure.