Former President William Ruto’s senior economic advisor, Moses Kuria, has predicted that April will be the toughest and most brutal month of all time.

Taking to his official X account on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, the former Public Service and Trade Cabinet Secretary attributed his claims to the ongoing war between Iran, Israel, and the United States.

According to Kuria, the real effects of the war in Iran will take a toll on the global economy in April.

“April will be the toughest and most brutal month of all times. The real effects of the regrettable war in Iran will take a toll on the global economy. The Hormuz effects of energy supply disruptions will hammer the global economy,” Kuria stated.

Fuel prices

Kuria went ahead to note that the country will witness hiked fuel prices in the month of April, noting that the prices are set to range between Ksh230 and Ksh250 per litre.

However, he warned that the Kenya Kwanza administration should avoid succumbing to pressure to introduce subsidies.

According to him, the effects of subsidies and foregoing taxes will be hard to be done away with two years after the war.

“In countries like Kenya, pump prices will end up in the region of Ksh 230 to Ksh 250 per litre. There will be pressure and temptations to apply knee-jerk and short-term solutions such as subsidies and foregoing tax revenues. This must be avoided at all costs. Messing up with the macroeconomic gains achieved so far will come with consequences that can not be undone even 2 years after the war,” he wrote on X.

“As a nation, we must collectively swallow the bitter Hormuz inflation pill while hoping that Netanyahu, Trump, and the faceless IRGC leadership in Tehran come back to their senses to save the world.”

Fuel shortage concerns

Kuria’s remarks come weeks after he dismissed fears of an imminent spike in fuel prices amid concerns about shortages, with some critics arguing that the government is not prepared for the looming crisis.

Taking to his official X account on Thursday, March 12, 2026, Kuria assured motorists that this week’s price review is unlikely to reflect the global oil market tensions that have triggered concern across the region.

He said Kenya’s fuel pricing mechanism makes it impossible for global shocks to immediately affect pump prices, urging the public not to panic over speculation circulating online.

“In this era where everyone is an expert at everything, it’s tempting to doubt your own knowledge when the uninformed pose as professors. I understand the oil industry very well, having worked in the industry since 1994 and as a banker to the oil producers later. There is no way on earth there will be a major spike in the price of fuel in this week’s review,” Kuria stated.

According to Kuria, the country’s pricing system is based on the M-Minus One formula, meaning shipping costs from the previous month determine the prices set in a given month.

He explained that the March pricing cycle is largely based on February fuel shipments, which were dispatched before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

“Firstly, our domestic supply chain is based on the M-minus-one formula, meaning the price in March is based on February shipping, which is pre-Iran war. Maybe minor variations based on logistical diversions post-sailing or insurance escalations, which is normal,” he said.

Kuria noted that any effects from the geopolitical situation would only be felt weeks later when new shipments reflecting current global prices arrive at the port of Mombasa.