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The electoral commission faces a new uphill task of reviewing boundaries even as it grapples with the impending retirement of its chairman, Wafula Chebukati, and two other commissioners.

The last boundary review, which created the current 290 constituencies, was undertaken in February 2012 by the Andrew Ligale-chaired Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission.

The next one is expected to turn into a battle pitting leaders from populous regions against those representing expansive but less populated areas.

At the heart of their differences is the push to retain 27 constituencies, which were allowed to exist despite not meeting their various population quotas.

Also at stake is the creation of extra constituencies and wards in populous areas for fair representation and equal distribution of resources. 

Yesterday, Chebukati, his deputy Juliana Cherera, and IEBC chief executive Hussein Marjan did not respond to our calls and messages, but sources within the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) confirmed that the commission was preparing to collect views from Kenyans and had already put systems in place.

Article 89(2) of the Constitution requires IEBC to undertake delimitation of boundaries between eight to 12 years, and the next phase, which should conclude by 2024, is to be guided by the 2019 census that placed the population at 47.5 million.

Former Nyandarua Speaker Ndegwa Wahome said Kenyans should expect fireworks, arguing that as long as constituencies remain units of allocation of resources, the population size in an electoral area will take centre stage in the debate.

“Resources are everything when it comes to development of an area. When you get it wrong at the stage of the formula or creation of the units (constituencies), you get it wrong forever. Therefore, the biggest fight that we are expecting to see is in the process of boundary review because leaders will aggressively present divergent positions for the sectoral interests,” he told People Daily.

Already, Ruiru MP Ng’ang’a King’ara, whose constituency has 172,088 registered voters as per IEBC and a population of over 500,000 people has kicked off a campaign to have it split into two, Ruiru and Githurai constituencies.

King’ara argues that with the current situation, his people have been disenfranchised in terms or representation and distribution of national resources.

‘Irreducible minimum’

According to King’ara, Ruiru is represented in Parliament by one MP, yet there are some counties with lesser populations.

He cites Lamu, which has a population of 143,920, according to the 2019 population census, but has two constituencies -Lamu East and Lamu West, which have a population of 22,258 and 121,662 people respectively.

“The irreducible minimum that we will be putting forward is to have Ruiru and Githurai constituencies. In other areas, the sub-counties are constituencies. I have already reached out to the commission with the suggestions and I will put up a fight on the same because that is the only way to ensure we have fair representation and allocation of money,” Ng’ang’a said.

The Constitution demands that the population of a constituency must be higher or lower than its quota by 40 per cent for cities and sparsely populated areas, and 30 per cent for other areas.

Additionally, IEBC is required to take account of geographical features and urban centres, community of interest, historical, economic and cultural ties; and means of communication of a region.

But former Mandera Senator Billow Kerrow, who has been opposed to attempts that would see populous regions get more electoral areas, says while population is expected to be a major factor in the exercise, the commission must take into account all other parameters such as community of interest, historical, economic and cultural ties and geography that favour Arid and Semi-Arid areas must also be considered.

“A constituency might not have less population but very expansive. A constituency like North Horr (protected), has coverage that is several times more than the size of central Kenya. It will take the MP weeks to transverse it. Yet in some of the populous constituencies, it would take a day,” he said.

He added: “Again we should not mistake constituencies as units of allocation of recourse. It’s about oversight, representation and legislation but because of CDF, people see it as a unit of revenue allocation, leading to the clamour of more constituencies, which is not the case.”

In Nyeri, which has three protected constituencies—Kieni, Tetu and Mukurwe-ini—Senator  Wahome Wamatinga is pushing to not only have the three retained, but ensure Kieni is split into two.

Sparsely populated

Lawmaker said though Kieni is sparsely populated, it should reap from its land mass, just like some of the arid and semi-arid areas, arguing that its size covers 52 per cent of the entire county.

“Population is not the only index that should be considered in reviewing boundaries. Kieni is among marginalised and the best thing to do today, which is what I will be putting forward in to have it split into two so that I can get extra resources to ensure it catches up with the rest in the county,” Wamatinga said.

While the commission has no power to reduce the constituencies from the set 290, it has the power to merge and propose new constituencies but has the latitude to change the number of wards from the current 1,450.

The topic was also subject of the failed Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) debate where leaders from populous regions demanded introduction of the proportional representation system to attain equality of the vote by increasing the number of constituencies but those from less populated ones want their areas considered based on landmass.

BBI had proposed an additional 70 new constituencies, whereby the larger Rift Valley was to get 23 new constituencies, Nairobi 12, Central Kenya 11 and Coast 10.

Had the Constitutional Amendment Bill 2020, sailed through, Kiambu, which has a population of 2.5 million people as per 2019 census, would have gotten six new constituencies to have 18, Nakuru (five), Kilifi (four) while Uasin Gishu, Narok, Kajiado, Mombasa, Kwale and Bungoma three each.