Why Ruto’s ODM pact raises eyebrows as 2027 political battle looms it is
By Aloys Michael, April 6, 2026With about 16 months to the 2027 General Election, Kenya’s political landscape is already shifting into campaign mode.
Driving the unfolding political drama is President William Ruto and his delicate political dance with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a move that could redefine alliances and reshape the race for power.
What is emerging is not just a simple partnership but a high-stakes negotiation that could alter the balance within the ruling coalition.
ODM is pushing for a structured power-sharing framework ahead of 2027, including a bold claim to the deputy presidency. That demand alone has sent shockwaves through the Kenya Kwanza camp.
Even so, the presidency is unlikely to be up for negotiation, as it remains firmly under the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). But beneath that top seat lies a fierce struggle over key positions that carry both power and influence.
The deputy presidency, parliamentary leadership, and major Cabinet dockets such as Interior, Treasury, and Health are now at the centre of intense political calculations. These positions are not just ceremonial; they shape government policy, control resources, and influence political loyalty.
ODM leader Oburu Oginga has made the party’s position clear, raising the stakes early in the negotiations.
“Some people misinterpreted my statement that the deputy president post is our main target. That’s what we are aiming at,” Oginga said during a recent party meeting in Mombasa.
This declaration directly places Deputy President Kithure Kindiki in a precarious position, as he becomes the most immediate obstacle to ODM’s ambitions.
Kindiki, a close ally of Ruto and a key figure in consolidating Mt Kenya support after the fallout with Democracy for the Citizens (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua, has responded cautiously to the pressure.
“All leadership positions are temporary. I’m a leader, and there is today and tomorrow,” he said.
In what appeared to be a call for calm, he added: “I have forgiven my brother. I will not answer him because, as an elder of Njuri Ncheke, you cannot insult your brother.”
While Kindiki has chosen restraint, his allies have taken a more aggressive stance, warning ODM against targeting the deputy presidency. This divergence highlights growing tensions within the ruling coalition.
ODM flexes political muscle
ODM, on the other hand, is not backing down. Its leadership is signalling a tougher negotiating position as 2027 approaches.
National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed has been particularly outspoken.
“Anyone in this country who wants to negotiate with ODM, we will not negotiate on our parliamentary strength,” he said.
“Anywhere we have an MCA, MP, Senator, Governor, Woman Rep, it will remain with ODM.”
He maintained that ODM is not entering talks as a junior partner.
“We have listened to some people speak a lot, but if you joke with us, we shall also present a presidential candidate. Let us meet on the battlefield. Do not threaten ODM. ODM zones are well known. So, our would-be partners, let’s respect each other. ODM is a major party,” he said.
“Don’t joke with ODM because if they are angered, they can cause problems.”
These remarks underline a growing confidence within ODM and hint at the possibility of a fierce contest if negotiations collapse.
Game of Thrones for allies?
The potential deal is already casting a shadow over some of Ruto’s closest allies. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, and Senate Speaker Amason Kingi could all see their positions reviewed in a new power-sharing arrangement.
Wetang’ula appears especially vulnerable. His dual role as Speaker and leader of Ford Kenya has long drawn criticism, with opponents arguing it compromises neutrality. In a coalition that demands loyalty and cohesion, such concerns could be used against him.
Mudavadi faces a different challenge. After folding his ANC party into UDA, he lost an independent bargaining platform.
While he retains a senior government role, his influence in coalition negotiations has weakened, leaving him exposed to shifting political dynamics.
Kingi, despite aligning early with UDA, is not entirely secure either. Coalition politics can be unpredictable, and even loyal allies can be sacrificed to accommodate new partners.
Beyond top offices, the battle is also expected to extend to powerful Cabinet dockets. Ministries like Interior, Treasury, Defence, Health, and Foreign Affairs are critical levers of state power.
ODM is pushing for a formal agreement that would include a clear structure for sharing these positions. Party chair Gladys Wanga has emphasised the need for equality in any arrangement.
“ODM expects to be treated as an equal partner, not a junior affiliate,” Wanga said, calling for a written agreement to formalise the deal.
This signals a shift from informal alliances to structured coalitions, raising the stakes for all involved.
For Ruto, the potential alliance presents both opportunity and danger. Bringing ODM on board could significantly boost his chances in 2027 by expanding his reach into traditional opposition strongholds.