Raila Odinga has always been a man of the people. For years, he has stood on the side of Kenyans when it mattered most. He has fought against injustice, corruption and bad governance. But today, as the 2027 elections approach, Raila finds himself in a very tight spot.

Kenyans are hurting. Life is hard. The cost of food, fuel and electricity is high. Many feel that the Kenya Kwanza government has not kept its promises. And now, there is a strong public mood against anyone seen to be close to President William Ruto. If someone supports Ruto or praises his policies, Kenyans see them as part of the problem.

That is where Raila’s challenge begins. He has defended Ruto more than once. He supported the Adani energy deal, which later fell apart after public outcry. People remember these things. Some now see Raila as too soft on Ruto, even though he is still the face of the opposition.

ODM Party Wrangles

Inside his own party, some leaders are growing uneasy. People like Edwin Sifuna and Godfrey Ototsi have warned against being too close to Ruto’s government. They know what the party stands for. They fear that working with Ruto makes ODM look weak and confused.

At the same time, Raila has been more useful to Kenyans when he is outside government. That is when he fights loudest. That is when he connects with the people. Right now, many feel that voice is missing.

The Mt Kenya Region Factor

Even if Raila backed Ruto fully, it would not guarantee numbers. The Mount Kenya region, which gave Ruto big votes in 2022, now seems to be moving towards former DP Rigathi Gachagua, former President Uhuru Kenyatta, among other political camps. So what does Raila gain from staying close to Ruto?

The AUC Bid Factor

Still, leaving is not that easy. The government supported Raila in his bid for the AU Commission job. They spent money and resources. It failed. However, it is widely believed that Raila continues to enjoy privileges such as state security and possibly other forms of quiet support.

If Raila walks away from Ruto, it might trigger serious trouble behind the scenes. It is also hard for him to explain to Kenyans why he supported a government he now wants to fight.

The Big Dilemma

So here he is. Between a rock and a hard place. If he stays, people feel disappointed. If he leaves, he risks everything.

And that is why the next move for Raila Odinga is perhaps the hardest in his political life.