The United Opposition is currently at a standstill, with each principal within the now rebranded United Alternative Government holding differing opinions on the most suitable time to settle on and select one of their own as the presidential candidate who will face President William Ruto in 2027.

All the principals have expressed interest in the top seat but have vowed that, at the appropriate time, they will sit down and agree on one person, with the rest throwing their weight behind the selected candidate in a bid to realise their joint aspiration of making Ruto a one-term president.

However, the one-billion-shilling puzzle remains: when that time should be something they have so far failed to agree on.

Kalonzo’s suggestion

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who also doubles as the convener of the United Opposition, had proposed that the coalition names its presidential candidate within the first quarter of 2026.

This formed part of his demands at the start of the year, alongside other reforms such as rebranding the coalition to Komboa Kenya.

He defended his proposal by arguing that naming a flag bearer early would give the candidate ample time to familiarise themselves with voters and the Kenyan populace ahead of the 2027 general election.

“I think that is what is going to unite us more. And of course, we are hoping before the year gets underway. I personally think within the first quarter, we should have agreed on who our flagbearer is, because, again, Kenyans want certainty to be able to plan and to make sure that William Ruto will not rig the coming election,” he said.

Gachagua dismisses Kalonzo

His proposal was met with an immediate rebuttal from former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who dismissed the idea, insisting that the United Opposition should not name its flagbearer early.

He argued that the decision should be made at the last minute, just months before the general election, warning that an early declaration would expose the candidate to state intimidation and unnecessary scrutiny that could derail their mission.

Gachagua referenced the 2002 political landscape, noting that it was only three months to the general election when Mwai Kibaki was unveiled as the presidential candidate for the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), a move that was warmly received by Kenyans and gave his competitor, retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, a run for his money.

Wamalwa backs Gachagua

Democratic Action Party–Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa echoed Gachagua’s sentiments, suggesting that the candidate should be named closer to the election period, preferably around six months to the general election.

He emphasised that the coalition should not be in a rush to unveil its presidential candidate.

“Our pick for a presidential flag bearer will take shape six months before the General Election. We will only choose a candidate that Kenyans want, one who has no corruption-related cases, no blood on his hands, and no questionable character, and who must also have a proven track record,” Wamalwa said.

Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) economic adviser and Nakuru senatorial aspirant Peter Mbae also recently stated on his social media platforms that the united opposition is likely to name its presidential candidate in the first or second quarter of 2027, just months before the general election.

Muturi differs with Gachagua

On the other hand, Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi has opposed the idea of a late declaration.

He stated that he will seek to convince his colleagues to settle on a candidate early. Like Gachagua, he referenced the 2002 scenario but offered a contrasting interpretation.

He pointed to former President Daniel Moi, noting that Moi kept his succession plans close to his chest, leaving several leaders believing they were best placed to succeed him.

“Waiting till the tail end could be disastrous; it could be a situation like the tsunami that hit KANU in 2002. There might be no time to control the damage of the fallout,” Muturi opined.

KANU situation

However, just months before the general election, Moi settled on Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred successor, a move that left others sidelined.

According to Muturi, this triggered a mass exodus of leaders such as the late George Saitoti, who defected to the NARC side and backed Mwai Kibaki.

Muturi warns that the united opposition risks finding itself in a similar predicament if it delays naming its candidate.

He dismissed Gachagua’s concerns about state intimidation, arguing that such scrutiny is inevitable and should not dictate their strategy.

He also challenged the narrative that Kibaki was unveiled at the last minute, maintaining that it had long been clear he would be the presidential candidate—an advantage the current united opposition does not enjoy.

Flagbearer selection matrix

Additionally, Kalonzo Musyoka and Jubilee’s flag bearer, Fred Matiang’i, have differed on the method to be used in selecting the flag bearer. Matiang’i prefers a scientific approach, while Kalonzo and his Wiper-affiliated allies advocate for a consensus-based method.

It is now a clear push and pull within the united opposition. Despite their agreement to work together, they are yet to find common ground on when to name their flagbearer.