Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) ignited Kenya like few other events have. Raila and President William Ruto campaigned hard, but it was not to be. Hats off to a great campaign.

The election loss has exposed deep-seated fault lines both at the domestic and continental levels.

First, the continental level. Raila and the eventual winner, Djibouti’s foreign minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf were stalemated at 22 (Raila) and 26 (Youssouf).

This defines a fault line that splits Africa into Francophone/ Muslim pitted against Anglophone. It is now clear that as currently constituted, Anglophone Africa will never win the AUC chairmanship- ever. Astonishingly, even the regional blocks created to rotate the chairmanship ended up with four Southern African francophone countries- Madagascar, Mauritius, Comoros and Seychelles- in Eastern Africa. How?

All six AUC chairpersons have come from the francophone/Muslim axis since 2002, bar one. They are Amara Easy (Ivory Coast – 2002), Alpha Omar Korean (Mali – 2003), Jean Ping (Gabon – 2008), Moussa Saki (Chad – 2017) and Youssouf (Djibouti – 2025).

The exception, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was elected in 2012 after South Africa, determined to break this hegemony, challenged Jean Ping, making francophone Africa furious. After a bad-tempered election, Lamina-Zuma won. Francophone countries never forgave her and refused to support her tenure. She chose to leave after one term.

Anglophone countries either go back to the drawing board or remain perennial handmaidens at the AU.

Paradoxically, when offered a true pan-Africanist and democrat, Africa preferred recidivism, and elected a candidate representing a country that respects none of AU’s values.

Djibouti has zero democratic credentials. President Ismail Omar Guelph, 77, was handpicked by his uncle, the then-ailing first president Hassan Ruled Adaption, in 1999. Guelph rules with his family. His wife, Kara Aid, is de facto vice president, his daughter Hairdo, is a presidential adviser, while his son-in-law, Drama Elmo, is minister for health. His half-brother, Sand Omar, is the director general (DG) of the port of Djibouti, the country’s main revenue earner, while his cousin Drama Ali, is the DG of the country’s electricity monopoly, Electricity de Djibouti.

Guelph removed term limits in 2010 and ran for a third term. He won a fifth term with 97 per cent of the vote in 2024 and looks set to be president for life.

Djibouti is a virtual colony of foreign powers. The US has its largest African military base there (Camp Bonnier), the French Air Force has its Base Adrienne 188, China has a base in the Djibouti port of Adorable, while Japan and Italy each has a support military base.

This is the country that is now the face of Africa. Congratulations to African Heads of State!

The election fallout is going to heighten mistrust between the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). The flaring up of the war in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo just before the elections did not help Raila’s case at all. The joint peace process the two blocs adopted is now in a shambles!

Finally, the AUC elections only served to showcase the ethnic fissures that continue to ravage Kenya. A section of Kenyans were virulent in their attack on Raila’s candidacy. They celebrated Raila’s loss wildly.  They were silent when Amina Mohamed was Kenya’s candidate in 2017.

Some wanted Raila in Kenya to use as a battering ram against the government. Others wanted him ‘punished’ for siding with a government they accused of bad governance. They thus sided with the opponent, a candidate of a country with very poor governance, and an authoritarian president who crushes all opposition and rules with his family. Yeah, go figure!

Lastly, the man himself. Despite the loss, Raila remains a towering political figure. His next move will determine many political trajectories. A nation awaits!

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