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A few weeks ago, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino warned ODM members against joining the planned national unity government. Their worries originate from the government’s inability to handle issues affecting ordinary citizens.

Despite ODM leader Raila Odinga’s assurances that the party had not joined the government, the nominations of members of his party to Cabinet Secretary positions have sparked astonishment and bewilderment.

Many party members and supporters are questioning the motives for the nominations, especially since they seem to contradict Odinga’s previous statements. Some are concerned that this move may compromise the party’s independence and principles, while others believe it can lead to influence and impact in the government.

Regardless, the nominations have sparked a heated debate in ODM and raised important questions about Odinga’s future direction and relationship with the government. Is he in government or not in government?

For a student of quantum physics, Raila’s actions bring to mind the groundbreaking quantum mechanics thought experiment conducted by Austrian physicist Erwin Schrödinger. In this experiment, Schrödinger proposed placing a cat inside a sealed box with a device that had a 50 percent chance of killing the animal within the next hour.

Following this hour, Schrödinger posed a perplexing question: “What is the cat’s condition?” While common belief would suggest that the cat is either alive or dead, Schrödinger pointed out that, according to the principles of quantum physics, just before the box is opened, the cat exists in a superposition of being both alive and dead simultaneously. It is only upon the act of observation that a single, definitive state is revealed.

Similarly, Odinga exists in a superposition in Kenyan politics. He is neither in government nor in the Opposition.

Any action in Kenyan politics should raise suspicions. Kenyan politics is motivated not by beliefs but by interests and transactions. The question is: Who is cheating who in this new relationship? Is President Ruto using tactics similar to Kibaki’s when dealing with Odinga?

It is worth mentioning that during the Kibaki-Odinga administration, tremendous progress was made, including infrastructure development and greater access to finance. Could Odinga be using his friendship with Ruto to further his agenda?

If so, Ruto’s camp should be cautious and borrow a leaf from the ancient Greek story of the Trojan Horse. In this tale, the Greeks had surrounded the city of Troy for a decade but failed to breach its walls. However, they devised a cunning strategy – they built a massive wooden horse and hid their best soldiers inside. Under the guise of a peace offering, they presented the horse to the king of Troy. Once inside the city walls, the Greek soldiers emerged from the horse and defeated the Trojan army in a single night, achieving in one day what they could not in 10 years.

Is Odinga employing a similar strategy in his political manoeuvres? Is he bringing a Trojan Horse to State House, awaiting the best moment to unleash his hidden allies? Only time will tell.

Ruto, on the other hand, could have a calculated plan about Odinga. It is a common belief that it is better to keep your friends close and your enemies closer to monitor and manage their behaviour. The President appears to be strategically leveraging alliances, consolidating his political support and broadening his government’s appeal.

Ruto may be able to counter any challenges or threats from Odinga by keeping him close. The President will always keep one step ahead of Odinga in the political game because of his strategic approach, which enables him to predict and counter any movements that the ODM leader may make. This will allow Ruto to influence Odinga’s choices and actions in his favour, enhancing his position of authority. This deliberate action could turn out to be a cunning and successful political ploy by Ruto.

— The writer is an Innovations Evangelist and a PhD Candidate; [email protected]