Before President William Ruto and his political nemesis turned buddy Raila Odinga signed a 10-point memorandum at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre on March 7, there were already murmurs within the ODM leader’s political camp about his moves.

Since then, some Orange party members, and mainly close Raila allies, have been raising questions about President Ruto’s administration. Their statements about Raila’s relationship with Ruto were weighty and could be seen as ‘insubordination’.

The allies – led by Siaya Governor James Orengo, his Kisumu counterpart Anyang’ Nyong’o, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and the latest entrant Suba North lawmaker Millie Odhiambo – have been warning their supporters against the broad-based government arrangement.

The pact was forged last year after deadly Gen Z protests and was meant to steady the government and stop the country from descending into anarchy. President Ruto incorporated close lieutenants of Raila into his administration as ‘experts’. However, their expertise is yet to be measured. The challenges of bad governance, corruption, intimidation and cracking down on dissenting voices remain.

Within the Orange party, Sifuna has been vocal in urging the party to maintain its independence rather than aligning uncritically with the ruling Kenya Kwanza administration. While stressing the importance of constructive criticism over blind allegiance, he has consistently challenged government policies he views as ineffective.

Sifuna has also been categorical that if the MoU signed between President Ruto and Raila is not respected, ODM will withdraw from the agreement.

During the burial in Siaya of Raila’s long-time bodyguard George Odiwuor, Orengo declared that he would not join what he called a ‘praise worship choir’ for the current administration.

Orengo seems to be breaking away from supporting what his party boss is spearheading. Maybe he has sensed he may not get an endorsement to defend his seat in the 2027 polls and is now charting his political path away from the ODM party and Raila.

Not only has Orengo opposed the broad-based government, he has also criticised it in the presence of both Ruto and Raila.

Curiously, Raila has remained silent. His silence could mean that opponents of his rapprochement with Ruto have his blessings or that he is scheming to abandon the broad-based government. In politics, it is all about interests.

The excitement among allies of the opposition chief when he signed the pact with Ruto seems to have fizzled out, leaving Kenyans guessing whether ODM is making a tactical retreat due to the public backlash that met the bromance.

The razzmatazz that greeted the coming together of the two leaders is declining, with some of Raila’s lieutenants now disclosing that they do not know the real reason behind the agreement.

About a month ago, another set of Raila’s allies – Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy CS), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy CS), John Mbadi (National Treasury CS), Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed – were defending the government with all their might.

The leaders, who only a few days ago were traversing the country singing platitudes for Ruto and explaining why he should be re-elected in 2027, seems to have made an about-turn and are hinting that ODM could field a presidential candidate in 2027.

In Mombasa during Idd, Raila charged that his party had not entered into a pact to betray Kenyans, urging the Ruto administration not to interfere with county government functions.

This was the first time the ODM leader announced that the party would field a presidential candidate in 2027.

The ODM chief previously caused confusion by insisting that ODM was not in government but had only donated “experts” to the Kenya Kwanza administration to help Ruto stabilise the government and the economy. Raila has been sending mixed signals. Is he in government and in the opposition at the same time?

The writer is the chairman of the Political Journalists Association of Kenya (PJAK)