It feels like Kenya is one perpetual political theatre with evolving characters, new alliances, recycled promises, and relentless noise. Yet, amid all this drama, there’s an emerging aura of optimism, driven by the People’s Loyal Opposition on the one hand, and on the other, the broad-based government formation and strategic appointments that seem to strike a chord across political and professional divides.

Take the move of CS Adan Duale to the Health ministry and the appointment of Dr Ouma Oluga as principal secretary. Critics argue that this appointment, by many accounts, is a refreshing change. A seasoned political figure to deal with the cartels, and on the professional front, health professionals seem upbeat, hopeful that their own, competent and grounded figure in Oluga will finally bring a sense of order to the perennial crises that have long plagued the health sector. Universal Health Coverage, SHA, SHIF, and the endless labour unrest by health professionals are now under fresh stewardship. But as the old adage goes: the taste of the pudding is in the eating. We wait to see if this optimism will translate into real reform.

But in typical Kenyan fashion, as the state seems to settle, the campaign trail remains alive, noisy and theatrical. Former CS Fred Matiang’i made a return to the public eye, his airport arrival met with mixed reactions and underwhelming pomp. Critics lamented the lack of gravitas, questioning the seriousness of his purported presidential ambitions. Is this how a would-be President re-enters the scene? The staging lacked substance, and the optics failed to stir the imagination of a people tired of recycled political drama.

Meanwhile, the self-declared “People’s Loyal Opposition” continues its crusade – oscillating between reckless, sometimes baseless, attacks on the regime and a hollow echo of grievances. Some attacks on the President border on tastelessness, stripping away the decorum required to build credibility. That said, President Ruto occasionally feeds the opposition cannon fodder through some of his more performative and controversial utterances, making him an easy target for satirical clapback.

The irony of the attacks from these once staunch defenders of the same system they now criticise is their thin moral authority which they seem not to appreciate. When one falls out with the gravy train and starts airing grievances, the public easily sees through the bitterness. It’s a dangerous political strategy, attacking a regime you once embodied. It lacks weight and exposes a lack of introspection.

This is reminiscent of Donald Trump’s saga. In the run-up to the 2024 US elections, he faced a barrage of criticism from more than 24 former aides and allies including his former vice-president, Mike Pence, and White House chief of staff, Gen John Kelly. The attacks were scathing, dramatic, and made for good headlines, but in the end, they had little impact. Trump triumphed, again. Why? Because the American people had already made up their minds. They saw most of the critiques as bitter outbursts from individuals who were once part of the very rot they now decried. But I like how Trump responded to most of them. “I fired him, he was utterly incompetent”, was a line he used repeatedly.

In Kenya, a similar script is playing out. The electorate is increasingly disillusioned but not easily swayed. Riggy G and company are shouting from rooftops about injustices and ills they were once actively part of – or too timid to challenge while enjoying power. Once kicked out, they suddenly found their voices. But it’s hard to build a movement on bitterness and contradiction because their political currency is rapidly depreciating with each repeated attack that is losing substance.

On the flip side, we now see a broad-based government taking shape. Whether by strategy or desperation, it is shifting political perceptions and is poised to reshape the post-2022 political terrain. There seems to be a deliberate attempt to silence the drums of political war between the top two legacy politicians in President Ruto and Raila Odinga and refocus on governance. If they choose to listen and act on the issues that gave rise to youth-led protests, especially the Gen Z movement and Kenyans cries against police brutality, abductions, and corruption, then they might very well usher in a new political dispensation.

— The writer is a media studies Researcher