Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku may have intended to calm political speculation by declaring that there is “no vacancy” in the Deputy President’s office, but his remarks have instead exposed a growing reality: the conversation about President William Ruto’s 2027 running mate has already begun.

Far from settling the debate, competing statements from within the Kenya Kwanza coalition and its broad-based partner, ODM, suggest that the deputy president’s position is quietly becoming one of the most contested political prizes ahead of the next General Election.

Ruku defends Kindiki

Ruku’s latest remarks project confidence in Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, insisting that President Ruto still has full trust in his principal assistant.

Only a day earlier, the CS had gone even further, saying Mt Kenya East would continue supporting President Ruto even if Kindiki was not retained as his running mate. At the same time, however, he personally endorsed Kindiki for a second term, arguing that “you don’t fix what is working.”

“We will continue supporting President William Ruto even if Kindiki is not picked; it is the prerogative of the Head of State to choose his running mate,” Ruku said.

Those two statements reveal the delicate balancing act currently facing Kenya Kwanza. On one hand, Ruku insists there is no vacancy. On the other, he openly acknowledges that selecting a running mate is entirely the President’s prerogative, leaving room for future political calculations.

ODM raises the stakes

If Ruku is trying to cool speculation, ODM leaders are doing the exact opposite.

The party has publicly declared that it wants nothing less than a 50-50 coalition arrangement with UDA, making the deputy president’s position its principal bargaining chip.

Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati has stated that if President Ruto flies the presidential flag, ODM must produce the running mate.

“As President Ruto is going for the presidency, we will also go for the deputy as a party. That’s the position. It’s clear,” Arati said.

National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed has echoed the same position, insisting there will be no coalition deal unless ODM secures the country’s second-highest office.

Junet has mentioned Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya among the strongest contenders, alongside Hassan Joho, Gladys Wanga and even the ODM party leader, while Budget Committee Chairperson Samuel Atandi has openly described Oparanya as a formidable choice.

Politics, not declarations, will decide

Regional arithmetic, coalition negotiations, voting patterns and political survival usually outweigh administrative achievements.

That explains why Ruku’s defence of Kindiki has not ended speculation. Instead, it has become part of the conversation.

While government insiders insist there is no vacancy, coalition partners are openly negotiating for the position, opposition leaders continue questioning Kindiki’s political future, and competing regional interests are becoming increasingly vocal.