Kenya’s political landscape has always been a battleground of shifting allegiances, surprise betrayals, and defining moments that alter the course of leadership. As a historian deeply invested in political dynamics, I view the unfolding events with a sense of historical continuity, recognising patterns that have shaped the nation’s governance since the return of multiparty democracy in 1992.

The past teaches us that power in Kenya is never absolute, and those who fail to read the political tides risk being swept aside. The question now is whether President William Ruto will withstand the unpredictable nature of Kenyan politics or whether the nation is primed for another “Tosha” moment that will redefine its leadership.

Removing Moi from power

The 1992 elections marked the dawn of multiparty politics, ending nearly three decades of KANU’s one-party rule. However, the opposition—despite their shared goal of unseating President Daniel arap Moi—failed to unite.

Divisions within the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) led to the formation of FORD-Kenya under Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and FORD-Asili under Kenneth Matiba, while Mwai Kibaki launched the Democratic Party (DP). This fragmentation handed Moi an easy victory, securing his reelection with just 36 per cent of the vote. A similar scenario played out in 1997, as opposition leaders ran separately and once again allowed Moi to cling to power.

Recognising the futility of disjointed opposition, Raila merged his National Development Party (NDP) with KANU in 1999, a bold move that positioned him as a possible successor to Moi.

However, when Moi endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta instead, Raila defected with other senior KANU figures, forming the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

This set the stage for the historic 2002 elections, where the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) was born from an alliance between Raila’s LDP and Mwai Kibaki’s National Alliance of Kenya (NAK).

Raila’s famous declaration—”Kibaki Tosha”—became the defining moment that led to KANU’s first defeat since independence.

Despite this victory, unity proved elusive. The post-election fallout led to the collapse of NARC, and by 2007, Kenya was once again deeply divided.

The fiercely contested election between Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU) and Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) resulted in a disputed outcome, triggering post-election violence. International mediation led to a power-sharing agreement, with Kibaki retaining the presidency and Raila assuming the newly created role of Prime Minister. This Grand Coalition Government reinforced a key political reality—no single party could govern Kenya without alliances.

By 2013, coalitions became the norm. Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto formed the Jubilee Alliance, bringing together The National Alliance (TNA) and the United Republican Party (URP), while the opposition regrouped under the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), later rebranding as NASA in 2017.

Despite NASA’s efforts to challenge the election results, Uhuru and Ruto retained power. The post-election period, however, saw a dramatic shift when Raila and Uhuru reconciled through the famous “Handshake,” sidelining Ruto and altering the political equation.

As 2022 approached, Ruto, sensing betrayal from his boss, charted his own path with Kenya Kwanza.

His grassroots campaign, championing the “hustler” movement, proved effective against the state-backed Azimio la Umoja, led by Raila with Uhuru’s support. Ruto’s victory reaffirmed that power is never absolute in Kenya’s politics—allegiances shift, and political fortunes can change in an instant.

Now, as the 2027 elections loom, a new political puzzle is forming. Raila’s bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship is poised to be a defining moment for Kenya’s political future. If he wins, it would remove him from the domestic political scene, inadvertently making Ruto a bigger winner than Raila himself. A Raila victory would elevate Kenya’s regional influence, solidify Ruto’s diplomatic credentials, and weaken the opposition’s most formidable figure.

However, should Raila lose the AUC bid, the consequences could be dire for Ruto. Internationally, it would be perceived as a diplomatic failure, raising doubts about Kenya’s clout in African geopolitics.

Domestically, Raila’s loss could reignite his political ambitions. The crucial question is: What would he do next? Would he, in an act of political pragmatism, throw his weight behind Ruto as a show of gratitude for the government’s support? Or would he, true to his unpredictable nature, endorse a new opposition figure, potentially fracturing Ruto’s grip on power?

A new wildcard

Amidst this uncertainty, a new wildcard has entered the fray—the impeached former Deputy President. Determined to settle political scores, he has become an active force against Ruto. His frequent political gatherings at his Wamunyoro home have drawn a steady stream of figures seeking his endorsement.

His public outbursts resonate deeply with his backyard’s electorate, signaling that he remains a potent political force. However, his impeachment disqualifies him from vying for the presidency, leaving him with only one option—to play the role of a kingmaker. But who will he back? Will he use his influence to rally voters against Ruto, or will he throw his weight behind an alternative opposition candidate who can unite the anti-Ruto forces?

For a new “Tosha” moment to materialise, several conditions must align. First, there must be a strong opposition candidate capable of uniting diverse constituencies. Second, opposition leaders must resist the lure of fragmentation, which has cost them victories in the past. Third, voter discontent must be high enough to drive demand for change. If economic challenges persist, will voters coalesce around a new political narrative?

Yet, an even deeper question lingers: Have Kenyan voters moved beyond personality-driven politics? While past elections have been defined by individual endorsements, there is growing demand for issue-based leadership. Can a single “Tosha” moment still sway an election, or will governance records and economic performance take center stage?

Kenyan politics remains unpredictable, and no election is ever guaranteed. While Ruto currently enjoys the advantages of incumbency, history has shown that power is never assured.

Just as Moi’s chosen successor lost in 2002 and Raila failed to capitalise on the Handshake advantage in 2022, Ruto’s path to reelection is not without obstacles. The emergence of a strong opposition figure, the outcome of Raila’s AUC bid, and the role of the impeached former Deputy President all add layers of uncertainty.

Will Ruto defy history and secure reelection, or will an unexpected realignment reshape Kenya’s political trajectory? Could the country witness another defining “Tosha” moment, altering the course of leadership? As the countdown to 2027 begins, one thing is certain—Kenya’s political drama is far from over.

The writer is a History Lecturer & UASU Chapter Trustee, Alupe University-Kenya Email: [email protected]