A deepening political rift is continuing within Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) after a new Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) survey revealed overwhelming support for the Linda Mwananchi faction associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, significantly outshining the rival Linda Ground camp linked to Oburu Odinga.

The survey paints a picture of an ODM support base increasingly gravitating toward a more aggressive, people-centred opposition approach, signalling growing discomfort with leaders perceived to be warming up to President William Ruto’s administration.

According to the TIFA findings released on Thursday, May 14, 2026, the Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction commands 73 per cent support among ODM supporters, compared to just 24 per cent for the Linda Ground camp. Only three per cent of respondents said they had no opinion.

“ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people-centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with government. Strong backing for Linda Mwananchi suggests growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived as defending public interests and holding government accountable,” the survey notes.

The findings are likely to intensify tensions within ODM, where divisions have been widening over whether the party should cooperate with the Kenya Kwanza administration or maintain a firm opposition stance ahead of the 2027 general election.

The Linda Mwananchi movement, associated with Sifuna, James Orengo and Godfrey Osotsi, has steadily gained momentum through grassroots mobilisation campaigns and issue-based politics targeting frustrated youth and economically marginalised communities.

Its growing popularity comes at a critical political moment as Kenya’s estimated 6.3 million Gen Z voters increasingly emerge as a decisive electoral bloc. Many young voters remain disillusioned with the government, citing unfulfilled promises, economic hardship, and concerns over claimed abductions and killings during protests.

Linda Ground in a shipwreck?

Unlike the Linda Ground faction, which critics accuse of leaning toward political accommodation with the government, Linda Mwananchi has positioned itself as a vehicle for resistance and accountability.

The movement has strategically focused on local grievances during rallies held in Kitengela, Kakamega, Kisumu, Narok, and Mombasa, helping it build a broader national appeal.

At a recent rally in Tononoka, Mombasa, Sifuna criticised the government’s handling of historical land injustices at the Coast.

“Land occupied by wealthy people is what locals are looking for. The fragmented title deeds will not help. We want titles for absentee landlords to be distributed to youth,” Sifuna said.

The message appears to be resonating strongly with voters who feel excluded from economic opportunities and increasingly frustrated with the political establishment.

Osotsi, expected to head the movement’s secretariat, said the faction is gaining momentum with every public engagement.

“We are improving with every meeting, and the messaging will become even better due to the overwhelming technical support from resourceful Kenyans,” Osotsi said.

“The public goodwill from all cadres of Kenyans is very encouraging. I have not seen this kind of goodwill since 2002, which brought in the Narc government. We thank Kenyans for the support as we build a huge political machine.”

Meanwhile, Orengo has framed the movement as the foundation of a broader political fight heading into 2027.

“Winning an election in 2027 starts now. I want you to prepare yourselves, be ready, be registered,” Orengo told supporters.

“This time around in 2027, there will be no stealing of votes. We will show up everywhere in Mombasa, Nakuru, Nairobi, Kisumu, and Turkana to ensure the will of the people is respected,” he added.

The survey results are expected to strengthen the confidence of the Linda Mwananchi camp while piling pressure on ODM leaders advocating closer ties with the government.

Even so, allies of President Ruto and leaders aligned to the Linda Ground faction have dismissed suggestions of a rebellion within ODM, insisting the party remains united despite the growing ideological divide.

But with Sifuna’s camp now enjoying nearly three times more support than the rival faction, the battle for ODM’s future direction appears to be tilting decisively in favour of the Linda Mwananchi movement.