Orengo: Ruto will be lucky to get 15% of votes in 2027
By David Nthua, July 26, 2026Siaya Governor James Orengo has predicted that President William Ruto will struggle to secure 15 per cent of the votes cast in the 2027 General Election.
Orengo said Linda Mwananchi leaders had travelled across Kenya and found that Ruto had lost support among voters.
“Hakuna njia Ruto atashinda nayo kura. Tumeenda Kenya hii nzima, Ruto hana kura. Akiwa na 15 per cent itakuwa ni bahati kubwa sana,” Orengo said.
The governor spoke during the Linda Mwananchi rally at Posta Grounds in Bungoma County on Sunday, July 26, 2026.
The meeting was organised as part of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s wider political mobilisation ahead of 2027.
“Tunasema Ruto aende Sugoi,” Orengo added.
Orengo accused the Kenya Kwanza government of worsening the economic conditions facing ordinary citizens.
“Ukiangalia, hakuna mtu ako na pesa kwa mfuko yake,” he said.
Orengo promises legal support to residents
Orengo urged Linda Mwananchi supporters not to fear arrests or police intimidation during political activities.
The former senator and Cabinet minister said he would provide legal support to anyone arrested or mistreated by police.
“Na msikuwe na uoga. Biashara ya uoga wachana nayo. Mimi kama wakili, I will be here for you,” he said.
“Kama kuna mtu yeyote ameshikwa ama kudhulumiwa na polisi, I’ll be here to defend you.”
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya also accused politicians allied to Ruto’s “Tutam” campaign of distributing money after political rallies.
“Kuna ndugu zetu ambao wako ule upande mwingine wa Tutam. Kuna mwingine kule Kimilili tumetoka, halafu anaanza kugawa pesa huko nyuma,” Natembeya said.
He did not identify the politician or provide evidence of the alleged cash distribution.
Poll places Ruto above Orengo’s projection
Orengo’s 15 per cent projection is political rhetoric rather than a polling figure.
The latest TIFA survey placed Ruto at 24 per cent. Sifuna followed with 15 per cent, Fred Matiang’i had 14 per cent and Kalonzo Musyoka recorded 13 per cent. Another 20 per cent remained undecided.
The survey interviewed 2,048 adults across all 47 counties between June 13 and June 22, 2026. It had a margin of error of 2.18 percentage points.
Globally, sitting presidents have previously fallen below 15 per cent. Madagascar’s Hery Rajaonarimampianina was eliminated from the 2018 presidential election after receiving about 8.8 per cent in the first round.
He had stepped down shortly before the vote as required by the country’s law but was seeking re-election as the incumbent.