No winning coalition has ever been formed 6 months before an election – Moses Kuria
By Kiprono Keileb, October 5, 2025Former President William Ruto’s senior economic advisor, Moses Kuria, has thrown a fresh perspective into Kenya’s ongoing political realignments, warning that early coalition talks rarely lead to victory.
In a short but sharp post shared on his official X account on Sunday, October 5, 2025, Kuria said history has to be judged.
“Historical Fact. No winning coalition has ever been formed more than 6 months before a general election. Some things I watch and just wonder. Is it a coalition or a lunatic express? Hesabu ni muhimu,” he stated.
His remarks come amid heightened political activity, with several leaders across the divide engaging in behind-the-scenes talks and public declarations about new alliances ahead of the 2027 polls.
Kuria’s political reflection
Kuria’s statement is a reflection on Kenya’s political history, where most successful coalitions have been formed close to election dates, often after long periods of negotiation, compromises, and shifting loyalties.
The remark, “Some things I watch and just wonder,” gave his post a tone of scepticism, suggesting he views current coalition moves as premature or poorly thought out.
The phrase stated by Kuria hints at confusion or lack of clear strategy in some of the emerging alliances, possibly a veiled critique of politicians rushing to unite without clear political arithmetic, a theme he reinforced by adding, “Hesabu ni muhimu”, which seemed to hint at confusion or lack of clear strategy in some of the emerging alliances.
Political timing and arithmetic
Kenya’s election history shows that major coalitions, such as the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) in 2002, the Jubilee Alliance in 2013, and Kenya Kwanza in 2022, took shape within a year or less of the elections.
Kuria’s comment seemed to echo this pattern, emphasising that timing and strategy are key determinants of electoral success.