Political analyst and activist Morara Kebaso has warned that the United Opposition’s reliance on tribal calculations could undermine its chances in the 2027 presidential election.

In a statement posted on X on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, Morara stated that the moment the youth allowed tribal politics to dominate the opposition’s strategy, the race was lost.

“We lost it in the day we went tribal. In my mind, it is not even about which county can or cannot be won by whom. That is of little concern. The moment we, the youth, surrendered our battle to the opposition to turn it into a tribal arithmetic of which tribal combination has more numbers, I knew we had lost,” Morara Kebaso said.

He emphasised that no sitting president can easily be defeated through tribal mobilisation alone, particularly one with access to extensive campaign resources. “No one can defeat a sitting president by using a tribal matrix, especially if he has over Ksh200 billion budget for his campaign. He will buy all the tribal kingpins except the tribe that hates him passionately and quickly and successfully run a campaign against one tribe. But the opposition knows what they are doing. They know even if they lose, their parties will have MPs and they will negotiate with Ruto in 2028,” the analyst noted.

Kebaso further suggested that a focus on accountability could have provided a stronger path for opposition success.

“My vision for a win in 2027 against William Ruto was to lower the importance of tribe and insist on accountability. He would have lost the battle of accountability. He cannot account for money, he cannot account for lives lost, he cannot account for diplomatic blunders,” he explained.

He warned that the next two years are crucial for the opposition to learn from its mistakes. “We have 2 years. We can still discover our mistakes and make a comeback. But if we don’t, we will watch tragedy on television in 2027, and the swearing in of a person, we will not be sure if he can vacate power after this,” Kebaso said.

The analysis paints an image of concerns over the role of tribal politics in shaping electoral outcomes and the urgent need for issue-based campaigns that prioritise accountability and national unity.