Makali Mulu, the MP for Kitui Central and a political analyst, has raised concerns about the future of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) following the death of its long-time leader, Raila Odinga.

In an interview on a local TV station on Monday night, January 19, 2026, Mulu emphasised that improper handling of the leadership transition could fragment the party into smaller, less influential units.

“If ODM transitions from Baba are not properly managed, it will break the party into small units, which are not going to be good for the party. Assuming they break into small units, that is going to weaken their bargaining capacity. They would be very weak to negotiate for anything serious,” Mulu said.

He highlighted ODM’s historical significance as one of Kenya’s most enduring political entities. “ODM had actually passed the test of time, having been there for 20 years. One of the oldest solid blocks of a party for the last 20 years,” he noted, adding that the party’s strength has been vital in coalitions including NASA, CORD, and Azimio, where it collaborated closely with parties like Wiper.

However, he warned that division would weaken the party. “Assuming they don’t manage the transition and they break into small units, that is going to weaken their bargaining capacity. They will be very weak to negotiate for anything serious… when somebody is very small, you can give them whatever you want to give them, because it’s like they have no choice.”

Implications for democracy

Mulu expressed concern about the wider impact on Kenyan democracy. “As a Kenyan, and a Kenyan who believes in democracy, what I see happening in ODM worries me… if, by bad luck, ODM gets into small entities, it’s going to be very dangerous for our democracy as a country. We are trying to mature our democracy, and we want to see parties like ODM becoming stronger.”

He likened the situation to a family losing its patriarch. “ODM, having lost its leader, the Honourable Raila Odinga, is just like home. When you lose the figurehead, the fatherhead in a family, obviously, there will be a bit of instability. What matters is how you manage that instability, more so during the transition.”

Negotiation and generational challenges

Mulu emphasised the importance of negotiation in securing ODM’s position in the broad-based government. “The party is saying Baba left us in the coalition government, in the broad-based government. That’s a very good statement. And they are also saying, based on that, we’ll be able to sit down and negotiate for our share of the next government based on that position.”

Mulu also pointed to generational tensions as a key challenge. “The issues coming up, they are issues to do with generational issues. You know, there’s the young generation, and there’s the old generation. Now, the young generation is saying we don’t have any room in this party the way it is now… The old generation is saying, we want to set a score, that we continue as Baba has left us.”

He cautioned that sidelining either side would hurt the transition. “If you push the old generation out, all of them are to go, then you are not likely to manage that transition well.” Mulu reiterated that careful dialogue remains essential to preserve ODM’s cohesion and its role in strengthening Kenya’s multi-party democracy.