A majority of Kenyans are opposed to the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, according to a new Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey, raising fresh questions over the political durability of the alliance as the country heads toward the 2027 General Election.

The survey, conducted between June 13 and 22, 2026, among 2,048 respondents across all 47 counties and released on Friday, July 24, 2026, found that 52 per cent of Kenyans oppose the Broad-Based Government, compared to 30 per cent who support it.

Another 15 per cent said they had no opinion, while 4 per cent said they were unaware of the arrangement.

The findings suggest that despite nearly two years of cooperation between President Ruto and ODM following the aftermath of the 2024 Gen Z protests, the political partnership continues to face significant public resistance.

Support appears to have hit a ceiling

According to TIFA, public backing for the Broad-Based Government has remained remarkably stable over the past year despite major political developments.

Support stood at 22 per cent in May 2025, rose sharply to 44 per cent in August 2025, and then dropped to 30 per cent in November 2025. The latest survey shows support remaining unchanged at 30 per cent, while opposition stands at 52 per cent.

TIFA says the figures indicate the coalition may have reached what it calls a “fairly stable ceiling” of public support.

“The continuing split within ODM over supporting President Ruto’s re-election appears to have created a fairly stable ceiling as to how much support the BBG can attract,” the report notes.

Support remains below 50 per cent in every region

One of the report’s most striking findings is that the Broad-Based Government fails to command majority support in any of Kenya’s nine survey zones.

The strongest backing comes from Central Rift (47 per cent), followed by Northern Kenya (43 per cent) and Nyanza (35 per cent).

Support is significantly lower elsewhere, including Western Kenya (29 per cent), Coast (31 per cent), South Rift (25 per cent), Nairobi (22 per cent), Lower Eastern (30 per cent) and Mt Kenya (13 per cent).

The findings underscore the challenge facing the political partnership in broadening its national appeal beyond areas where government support has traditionally been stronger.

Sharp decline in Western and Nyanza

The survey also reveals notable shifts in regional sentiment over the past year.

Support for the Broad-Based Government has fallen most sharply in Western Kenya, dropping from 62 per cent in November 2025 to 29 per cent today—a decline of 33 percentage points.

In Nyanza, backing has similarly declined from 59 per cent to 35 per cent, while Northern Kenya and Mt Kenya have also registered notable decreases in support.

By contrast, support has risen in Central Rift, Coast, and Lower Eastern, though none of those regions records majority approval.

ODM split continues to weigh on coalition

TIFA attributes much of the uncertainty surrounding the Broad-Based Government to the widening divisions within ODM over the party’s future political direction.

The report notes that the alliance has generated increasing unease among ODM supporters as the 2027 election approaches.

According to TIFA, the disagreement centres on whether the arrangement was intended merely as a temporary framework to implement a joint reform agenda following the 2024 Gen Z protests or whether it should evolve into a long-term political alliance that includes ODM supporting President Ruto’s re-election bid.

The poll also references the increasingly public disagreement between the party’s Linda Mwananchi and Linda Ground factions, with leaders such as Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi continuing to oppose closer cooperation with Kenya Kwanza.