The endorsement by former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee-led party to back former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i for presidency in 2027 has added complications to Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s chances as the Opposition’s sole candidate to take on President William Ruto.

Kalonzo and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, have been angling for Uhuru’s support.

Kalonzo’s situation could be even more complicated further if ODM leader Raila Odinga decides to declare his interest in seat or throw his support behind anybody else.

Many contrary opinions wonder loudly what will happen to the former Vice President should Raila, whose bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship hit a snag, declare his candidature for presidency and whip his brigade to his bid? Will the former Vice President back down and support him as he has done previously in the past General Elections or will he move to the end?

And will Raila remain as the principal of the collapsing Azimio coalition?

Sunset years

Raila’s loss at the AUC has impacted on the political careers of many of his long allies in the country. The loss will definitely fill the fortunes of Kenyan politicians who have curved their political careers by associating with the Opposition leader for many decades. It will also be a boon for many.

On the contrary, the win could have led to Raila spending his final political years at the helm of the continental politics rather than local politics and thereby forcing his puppets to suffer on their own.

However, the loss now gives his cronies a fresh political lease of life as he will have to gun for the presidency in 2027 to guarantee his continued political relevance in the country and elsewhere.

The Kenyan political landscape is strewn with leaders who owe their luminous political positions from closely associating with Raila’s activities.
The leaders who count the former prime minister as their “political god-father” include former Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, governors James Orengo (Siaya), his Kisumu counterpart Anyang’ Nyongo’, ODM’s Cabinet Secretaries Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya and John Mbadi. The list is long.

For instance, Ngilu is one of Raila’s leading long standing allies in Ukambani since former President Daniel Moi’s era when they were involved in anti-Kanu’s tyrannical regime and other activities which propelled her to national limelight to the point of her becoming one of the historic first woman presidential candidates in the country.

Political buddies

Since that time, Ngilu and Raila have become political buddies and stuck together, weathered storms together as conjoined twins.

It will be interesting to see how such will pan out in the post-Raila AUC scenario.

Earlier sources indicated that Raila’s win at the AUC, could have steered Ngilu in seeking to reclaim her Kitui gubernatorial seat. But now since he hasn’t, the Narc Party leader is banking on being picked as his running mate in the next General Election.

An ally of Kalonzo in Ukambani, Makueni Governor Mutula Kilonzo Jnr says his party leader will be in the ballot regardless of the position taken by Raila.

This he must for many obvious reasons. The Azimio co-principal has attracted a huge following nationally, hence the barrage of recent orchestrated attacks by the top honchos at Kenya Kwanza and the President himself.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna on the other hand opines that in an event Raila goofs by backing President William Ruto’s re-election, both will lose the polls in the hands of “emerging” new presidential candidate who will enjoy massive support from disgruntled voters.

Mutula Jnr opined that the events of last week need reflection as a country.

“We cannot afford such losses on international stage. It is a diplomatic goof -whichever way you look at it,” the governor told the PD Weekendi when reached out for comment.

He says Raila is at cross roads adding that Azimio is not the same and will not be the same again.

The Wiper governor said for the ODM leader to vie for the presidency, he will certainly give the incumbent an edge considering the next election will be highly contentious.

“The politics being a game of numbers game, the events of last year have cumulatively changed the political matrix for Kenya Kwanza alliance,” Mutula Jnr said.

“Will ODM fill the gap in central Kenya? Is there room to accommodate Raila and his stature in the already crowded alliance?

According to him, these questions and many others will definitely have a bearing on the events in the coming days. Once the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is in place, Kenya should expect a political move.

How Raila navigates between what appears to be a loose alliance in the broad-based government and the quest for ODM to have a presidential candidate is a matter that is of interest to the ensuing political battle, the governor believes.

“My firm stand is the apparent split on thought and strategy appears to be Raila’s Achilles heels which is a very rare occurrence,” Mutula Jnr continued.

He said this is evident from the divergent views between Siaya Governor James Orengo, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino , Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna on one hand and Homa Bay MP Peter Kaluma, his Suna East counterpart Junet Mohamed and others.

Mixed signals

Whether this path is deliberate or contrived in the night meetings within the party, the public is waiting for the real Raila Odinga to stand up.

The perception that Raila has dined and wined with the king, is not sitting well nationally, hence the outlandish rebuke by Junet on the floor of the House. They will not admit but the loss has dented Raila.

Another of Kalonzo’s allies, Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi says should Raila rejoin his colleagues in Azimio, several factors would be under consideration, including reasons why he did not win in 2022 despite having government support.

“Should this happen, all the frontrunners would have to sit and discuss extensively. But our support for him will be automatic. He will have to convince us why we should always be supporting him despite having lost in all the five occasions,” Mwangangi says.

Mwangangi says the former Prime Minister would also be required to explain himself why he always ends up joining every successive government every time he loses the presidency.

Similarly, Mwangangi says Raila should also realise it is a high time for him to reciprocate the support he has been receiving from Kalonzo.

Mutula Jnr said politics abhors vacuums and Kalonzo has lived up to all those who disagree with Kenya Kwanza modus of governance. Whichever way this appears, ODM as a national party has a lot of redeeming to do before its core supporters.

A political commentator, Martin Oloo, says Raila’s return to the county’s political scene is just but another set of confusion particularly on Azimio where functionally he is not coalition’s leader.

Oloo said it is not clear whether Azimio is in the opposition or inside the government. “How does that work out? I think there is a whole new arrangement; Baba is necessary on both sides; whether on President Ruto, Kalonzo or former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua side. He is useful politically,” Oloo said.

“However for the purposes of Azimio, I think we have seen the last of Azimio. Remember every time we approach elections in this country, we always have new political formations. So Azimio was for 2022, do not expect it to last beyond 2025,” the commentator who is versed with dimensions of national politics said.

Oloo said noticeably the country needs to start thinking of new formations and which developing coalitions Raila will be on.

He said there is every indication that the President is courting the former Prime Minister and he wants him for 2027. But he is quick to say there is also every indication that the rest of Kenyans will gather around Kalonzo, Gachagua, DAP-Kenya party leader Eugene Wamalwa, Trans Nzoia Governor, George Natembea and so forth.