Embakasi North MP James Gakuya has sparked political debate after stating that ODM party leader Raila Odinga, despite still holding a firm grip over the Orange Democratic Movement, is slowly losing influence beyond his Luo-Nyanza stronghold.

Speaking during a local political talk show on a local television station on Tuesday, July 29, 2025, Gakuya said that Raila continues to command loyalty from his base, a following he described as “unique and unwavering”, but he noted how the seasoned politician is struggling to retain influence in other regions.

According to Gakuya, ODM is virtually inseparable from Raila Odinga, with decisions made by the former prime minister rarely being questioned.

“ODM issues direct tickets, and no one dares ask Raila why,” he remarked that the party largely operates under Raila Odinga’s authority, a structure reinforced by the strong loyalty demonstrated by its supporters.

The Embakasi North MP suggested that such political loyalty is rare, if not impossible, to find elsewhere in the country.

“If I had that kind of support, I would be a lucky man,” he said.

He further stated that Raila’s support is huge to the extent that some followers would tarmac roads to Jomo Kenyatta International Airport just to welcome him.

“It is only in that region where a master can decide what he wants, and everyone goes mute. Whether they are eating or not, if Raila is comfortable, they are all comfortable,” Gakuya said.

Gradually losing support

However, Gakuya believes Raila is no longer as politically invincible as he once was. He said the ODM leader is gradually losing support in key former bastions, particularly in the Eastern and Western parts of the country.

“He is only remaining with Luo-Nyanza,” Gakuya noted, warning that Raila’s once broad national base is narrowing.

This statement comes amid increasing talk of succession and reorganisation within the ODM party. Raila, who has remained tight-lipped about his political future following the 2022 General Election, continues to feature prominently in national discourse, including on matters of bipartisan dialogue and governance reforms.

Gakuya further hinted that Raila’s entry into negotiations with the current regime mirrors his previous political moves.

“This is not his first time making deals with the government. He hasn’t done anything new this time,” he said, referencing past coalition arrangements such as the 2008 Grand Coalition Government and the 2018 ‘Handshake’ with former president Uhuru Kenyatta.

While Raila’s supporters maintain he is still the most influential opposition figure in the country, critics like Gakuya argue that the political tides may be shifting and that the ODM leader may need to rethink his next move if he hopes to retain his national relevance.

As the 2027 political season begins to simmer, the remarks by Gakuya are likely to stir discussions within ODM’s ranks and beyond, particularly among leaders keen to understand or challenge the next chapter in Raila Odinga’s long political journey.