International oil prices edged downward this week as rising global supply continued to outpace demand, easing pressure on energy markets that have been volatile for much of the year.

According to the latest Central Bank of Kenya Weekly Bulletin released on Friday, November 28, 2025, benchmark prices for the Murban crude oil grade declined to Ksh8370 per barrel on November 27, down from Ksh8468 per barrel recorded a week earlier.

The downward movement in prices has been attributed to increased production from major oil-exporting nations, which has flooded the market with additional supply at a time when global demand remains relatively soft.

Analysts note that despite geopolitical tensions in some producing regions, output levels have stayed high, intensifying the supply-demand imbalance.

The dip in oil prices comes at a time when advanced economies are experiencing reduced inflationary pressure, largely due to lower energy costs.

With energy prices easing, inflation concerns have softened in major markets such as the United States and the Eurozone, offering some relief to policymakers struggling with the effects of prolonged high inflation in recent years.

In the United States, the labour market has also shown early signs of cooling, with jobless claims falling by 6,000 to 216,000, the first decline since April.

while the U.S. Dollar Index weakened slightly by 0.56 per cent during the week. A softer dollar typically supports oil prices, but the effect was overshadowed by the stronger supply influence.

Global energy analysts say the latest price movement reflects a broader trend expected to continue into early 2026 unless major producers adjust output or global demand strengthens.

Effect on oil-importing countries

For net oil-importing countries like Kenya, the decline in international prices provides a potential cushion on the cost of fuel imports, helping stabilise domestic pump prices and easing pressure on local inflation.

Despite the recent dip, markets remain sensitive to any signals from OPEC+, geopolitical disruptions, or shifts in global economic performance, all of which could alter the current price trajectory. For now, however, the global oil market appears firmly in a supply-driven cooling phase.

These come after the latest EPRA review, which saw pump prices stagnate at Ksh184.52 per litre for petrol and Ksh171 for diesel.