Global oil prices fall as geopolitical tensions ease ahead of EPRA fuel review
By Faith Lagat, June 14, 2026Global oil prices have declined following easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with implications for Kenya’s upcoming fuel price review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA).
The movement in global crude markets comes at a time when domestic fuel prices remain elevated after the previous review.
According to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Weekly Bulletin for the week ending June 11, 2026, Murban crude oil prices declined to Ksh8,364 (USD 64.60) per barrel from Ksh8,778 (USD 67.80) per barrel a week earlier.
“Commodity prices declined in the week ending June 11, 2026, largely reflecting easing geopolitical tensions following optimism over U.S.-Iran negotiations. Murban crude oil prices declined to Ksh 8,365.49 per barrel from Ksh 8,778.86 per barrel a week earlier,” the CBK bulletin read in part.
The CBK attributed the drop to “optimism surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations,” which reduced safe-haven demand and eased concerns over supply disruptions in key shipping routes.
Fuel prices in Kenya rose sharply in the May 14, 2026, EPRA review, which took effect from May 15, 2026. Super Petrol increased by Ksh16.65 per litre, Diesel rose by Ksh46.29 per litre, while kerosene prices remained unchanged.
However, EPRA revised fuel prices after a six-hour consultative meeting with public transport operators over an increase in diesel and super petrol prices.
The regulator reduced diesel prices by Ksh10.06 per litre, kerosene prices increased by Ksh38.60 per litre, while super petrol prices remained unchanged.
Following the price revision, diesel prices in Nairobi retailed at Ksh232.86, Kerosene at Ksh191.38, while Super petrol remained unchanged at Ksh214.25.
EPRA outlook and global market trends
The decline in global crude prices is expected to feed into the upcoming EPRA monthly review, which is based on international product costs, shipping expenses and exchange rate movements. Kenya imports all its refined petroleum products, making local prices highly sensitive to global oil trends.
The CBK bulletin noted that the Kenya shilling remained stable, trading at Ksh129.48 against the US dollar on June 11, 2026, compared to Ksh129.38 the previous week. Foreign exchange reserves stood at Ksh1.72 trillion, equivalent to 5.6 months of import cover, above the statutory minimum requirement.
The Monetary Policy Committee maintained the Central Bank Rate at 8.75 per cent during its June 9, 2026, meeting, noting that inflation rose to 6.7 per cent in May 2026 from 5.6 per cent in April 2026, partly driven by earlier global supply disruptions. The committee indicated that inflation is expected to remain within the target range in the near term.
Domestic market conditions
Money market liquidity remained supported, with commercial banks recording excess reserves averaging Ksh173 billion above the required Cash Reserve Ratio. Interbank activity remained steady, while lending conditions continued to show gradual easing in some segments.
At the Nairobi Securities Exchange, key indices recorded marginal declines during the week, even as bond market turnover increased significantly. Treasury bill auctions remained oversubscribed, reflecting sustained investor appetite for government securities.
Kenya imports all refined petroleum products, with domestic pump prices determined by international oil prices, landed costs, shipping expenses and exchange rate movements as outlined in the EPRA pricing formula.