EAC records Ksh103.2B trade surplus as exports surge
By Victor Mukabi, August 6, 2025Intra-African trade and increasing competitiveness among the East African Community (EAC) member states has seen the region record a trade surplus of $0.8 billion (Ksh103.2 billion) in the first quarter of 2025, compared to a trade deficit of $4.0 billion (Ksh516 billion) during the same period in 2024.
According to the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin for the period between January to March 2025, total exports increased by 47.3 per cent to $ 17.7 billion (Ksh2.28 trillion) while imports rose modestly by 4.6 per cent to $16.8 billion (Ksh2.16 trillion).
Notably, domestic exports grew by 48.1 per cent as re-exports rose by 32.4 per cent to reflect a rise in locally produced and value-added goods. “Intra-African trade contributed significantly to this outcome,” the Bulletin reads in part.
“Trade within the continent grew by 53.9 per cent to $ 9.5 billion (Ksh1.2 trillion), now accounting for 27.5 per cent of total EAC trade. Intra-EAC trade alone rose by 53.6 per cent to $5.2 billion (Ksh670.8 billion), underscoring progress made in regional integration and the removal of trade barriers.”
China retained its position as the EAC’s largest trading partner during the quarter, followed by the United Arab Emirates, India, South Africa and Japan.
For the first time in recent reporting periods, the region recorded a trade surplus of $1.8 billion (Ksh232.2 billion) with China, following a notable increase in exports to the Chinese market and a slight decline in imports.
For the second quarter, the trade surplus could be much higher as the region continues to unravel its own source solutions to boost trade following the US trade tariffs and Trade war with China.
US President Donald Trump’s tariffs aimed at further strengthening the US economy were first announced in April, just after the first quarter of 2025, thus increasing the likelihood.
But the same growth might be slowed down if the region continues to experience insecurity, poor infrastructure development and both tariff and non-tariff barriers.
Export destinations
Meanwhile, other key export destinations for the region’s products included South Africa, Hong Kong and Singapore, while imports were largely dominated by petroleum products, vehicles, machinery and plastics.
The Bulletin highlights that trade activity continued to be concentrated in a few key sectors, including base metals, minerals, agricultural goods, precious stones and machinery, which together accounted for more than half of the region’s total trade value.
While there was notable growth in trade, inflation remains a key challenge as the annual headline inflation in the EAC region, as measured by the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (EAC-HCPI), stood at 27 per cent in March 2025, down from 30.6 per cent in February compared to the 6.7 per cent that had been recorded in March last year.
As per the report, month-on-month headline inflation was 0.2 per cent in March, compared to minus 0.5 per cent in February 2025.
“The annual average headline inflation for the 2024 calendar year stood at 13.5 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent in 2023. This was largely driven by high inflation levels in South Sudan and Burundi, which stood at 99.9 per cent and 20.8 per cent respectively,” the report highlights.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stood at 28.9 per cent in March 2025, while food inflation was recorded at 49.4 per cent for the month of March 2025, down from 55.6 per cent registered in February 2025, as the Energy and utility inflation remained relatively stable at 3.3 per cent.
Consequently, the Bulletin notes that broad money supply recorded a 10.1 per cent growth during the period, to signal a more liquid financial environment across Partner States.
This growth, according to the EAC, was largely supported by a 21.1 per cent increase in net credit to the government, pointing to continued fiscal expansion and public sector financing.
Credit to the private sector also rose by 5.5 per cent, indicating a gradual recovery in private sector activity, which had faced financial access challenges, especially in Kenya.