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Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Ministewr Raila Odinga – the two leading State House contenders – have now turned their full focus on ensuring a high voter turnout in their strongholds to strengthen their chances of winning next week’s presidential election. 

With their ambitions highly dependent on voter turnout, Deputy President Ruto and the former Prime Minister are expected to spend most of their time this week rallying their supporters to come out and vote in large numbers. Indeed, they have already started preparing their teams, with Raila, for example, coming up with a whistle tactic to get people to wake up early and vote. Ruto, too, has been decampaigning members of other parties, urging supporters to only vote for his UDA party and Kenya Kwanza coalition candidates.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has registered 22.1 million votes for this year’s election. 

In the August 2017 election, turnout stood at about 80 per cent. However, it went down significantly to 34 per cent during the repeat poll on October 26, after the opposition, then led by Raila, boycotted it.

Five years earlier, during the first election after the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution, turnout stood at an impressive 86 per cent.

At the time, political stakes were higher as the main contender — Uhuru Kenyatta was battling International Criminal Court (ICC) cases linked to the 2007 post-election violence. Uhuru had picked Ruto as running mate.

Like Uhuru, Ruto, too, was facing ICC charges. They were running against Raila, who had disputed the results of the 2007 presidential election. Raila had picked Kalonzo Musyoka as running mate.

Uhuru and Ruto used their predicament to rally their supporters to vote for them, claiming their opponents were planning to ensure they were locked up abroad.

This year, Raila and Ruto are aiming at a higher turnout largely because opinion polls show they are locked in a dead heat. That means turnout will determine who wins.

Raila, who is vying for the nation’s top seat for a fifth time, has launched what he calls ‘Firimbi Movement’ to inspire more of his supporters to turn out and vote on Tuesday.

Members of the movement will be asked to blow whistles at dawn to wake up people to go and vote.

Azimio-One Kenya Coalition Party candidate, who unsuccessfully vied for the presidency in 1997, 2007, 2013 and 2017, is banking on a higher number of voters in his bases as he seeks to break the jinx that has denied him the nation’s leadership.

In the past elections, turnout in some of his strongholds in Nyanza and Western regions was below 80 per cent.

Last week, Raila also rallied boda boda operators to ferry voters to polling centres for free on Election Day.

Yesterday, his campaign secretariat press secretary, Dennis Onsarigo, said the call was for the youth to come out in large numbers and ensure other supporters wake up early to cast their ballots.

The Kenya Kwanza team has also upped the ante.

Lead campaigner

Aware of what a high turnout means, having been lead campaigner for Uhuru’s re-election in 2017, Ruto has also been beseeching his supporters to come out in large numbers and vote for him and other allied candidates.

Yesterday, he made the rallying call for a large turnout at a rally in Kabarnet, Baringo County, where he asked residents to ensure everyone who is registered actually votes.

“If you have a car, you can ferry those unable to walk to go and vote,” Ruto’s close ally and former Baringo Governor Benjamin Cheboi said. Cheboi is seeking to recapture the seat on a United Democratic Alliance  ticket.

In the last one month, he has emphasised on the importance of having all registered voters coming out to vote, saying it could make the difference between him getting the constitutionally required 50 per cent plus one vote or not.

“Every person who has registered must come out and vote. We do not want 99 per cent turnout. Where has the one per cent gone? We want everyone to vote for us,” he said at a major rally in Kaptet. “In Kenya one must get 50 per cent plus one vote. The remaining one per cent could easily deny us the win.”

Political pundits believe a contestant who manages to rally an 85 percent turnout in his stronghold will have a greater chance of becoming the country’s fifth president. Political strategist Franklin Kaburu said past elections were determined by how candidates performed in their strongholds and how much they ate into their opponents’ bases.

Kaburu told People Daily that this year’s presidential election will be determined by voter turnout in Mt Kenya. The region has over five million voters.

“Turnout will have a huge impact on the chances of Raila or Ruto winning. It is expected that turnout in Mt Kenya will be substantially low because of largely two factors. “One is they do not have a presidential candidate on the ballot and therefore there is no drive to come out and vote. Two, is they know whoever wins they will have a representative at the top because both coalitions have a running mate from the region.”

Upper hand

Ruto is presumed to be having an upper hand in the region while Raila has made gains in recent months since appointing Martha Karua as his running-mate.

When President Uhuru was seeking reelection five years ago, the turnout in the region was among the highest in the country with over 80 per cent of the registered voters coming out to vote, majority of them for the retiring Head of State.

“In 2017, Mt Kenya registered an 85 per cent turnout in Mt Kenya West and 79 in the East,” said Kaburu.

He projects that turnout could be much lower this time around.

“A low turnout will work in Raila’s favour,” said Kaburu, who is also Secretary-General of the Party for Peace and Democracy. 

Nandi Governor Stephen Sang said Ruto stands a greater chance of winning if there was a higher turnout on Mt Kenya and Rift Valley.

“If everyone who supports Ruto comes out, we will defeat Raila by a huge margin. In 2017, we had 84 per cent turnout. This time around it must be 100 per cent if we want Ruto to win,” said Sang, who is also seeking to recapture his seat on a UDA ticket.