Kenyan politics is a paradox, opposition in government, government in opposition!

In this unique setup, power isn’t just contested at the ballot box but also in boardrooms, backchannels, and public rallies. But the real intrigue? The aftermath of the Raila-Ruto handshake. One key player feeling the heat is Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro. For years, he’s been seen as a fence-sitter. But is he really? Or is the ground shifting beneath him?

In the holy book, Pontius Pilate, the Roman governor of Judea, faced pressure to either condemn or release Jesus Christ. Though he found no fault in Jesus, he feared both the wrath of the Jewish leaders and the consequences of Rome. Instead of making a logical decision, he “washed his hands” in front of the crowd, symbolizing his refusal to take responsibility for Jesus’ fate. His indecisiveness led to Jesus’ crucifixion.

During the 2024 motion to impeach Gachagua, an overwhelming majority of 291 out of 345 MPs signed in favour of his removal. Nyoro  abstained from the vote.

Many accused him of “fence-sitting,” unwilling to take a definitive stance at a crucial political moment. The decision  led his ouster from the influential position of chairperson of the National Assembly’s Budget and Appropriations Committee. UDA saw his neutrality as an act of disloyalty, which resulted in his dismissal. Let us analyze this outcome. 

Nyoro’s removal from his leadership position raises strategic questions. Is his ouster a “Trojan horse” manoeuvre by President Ruto, aimed at weakening Gachagua’s political stronghold in Central Kenya?

If Ndindi launches his political party, he will attract a following because of his track record. This could benefit President Ruto’s UDA, as his opposition is in Central Kenya. However, this move might be seen as disloyalty to Gachagua, who has a massive following in central Kenya.

History is the best teacher. During Kenya’s 1992 elections, where the division of Kikuyu votes between Kenneth Matiba and Mwai Kibaki facilitated President Daniel Arap Moi’s victory. By sidelining potential challengers like Nyoro, Ruto may be pre-emptively preventing a unified Kikuyu front from emerging in the next elections.

If Ndindi joins the opposition, could he be trusted? Once upon a time, The Kingdom of Wu was gearing up for battle against the powerful State of Chu. Knowing that strength alone would not guarantee victory, King Wu sought the wisdom of his strategist, Sun Tzu.

“Victory is won before the battle begins,” Sun Tzu advised, emphasising the importance of knowing one’s enemy. Following this, the king sent a spy disguised as a merchant to Chu, who infiltrated the court and gathered critical information over several months.

The spy discovered weaknesses in Chu’s defenses, including unguarded fortifications and complacency among the rulers. Armed with this knowledge, the King of Wu devised a brilliant strategy to strike at these vulnerabilities.

When Wu’s forces attacked, they exploited every flaw, overwhelming the overconfident State of Chu. The battle was won not just through strength, but through the strategic use of espionage, ensuring victory before the first arrow was shot. Will Ndindi be a merchant of UDA?

 His refusal to align with any major political faction could also leave him vulnerable to attacks on both sides. In a landscape where coalitions determine survival, navigating alone is a dangerous strategy.

This is the story of politicians who oppose the tide: Babu Owino, Caleb Amisi, and Edwin Sifuna. Are we together?

 The writer  is an Innovations Evangelist and a PhD Candidate. machariamuhoho@gmail.com