Former international Noah Abich has tipped AFC Leopards to defeat rivals and champions Gor Mahia in the first Mashemeji derby of the 2024/25 FKF-Premier League season.

The two Kenyan giants are set to face off at Nyayo Stadium on Sunday, November 24, just a week after K’Ogalo parted ways with their head coach, Leonardo Martins Neiva, following a string of poor results in the league.

Gor Mahia has dominated the derby in recent years, with Ingwe mostly playing catch-up.

According to the records, the last six matches have seen Ingwe manage only one win against K’Ogalo. Last season, it was K’Ogalo who took the bragging rights by sealing a double over their nemesis. In the first-round meeting, Gor Mahia secured a 2-0 win before sealing a 1-0 victory in the second-round meeting on their way to winning a record 21st league title.

In 2023, the two sides battled to a 0-0 draw in the first-round meeting, but Ingwe took the honours in the second-round fixture after beating Gor Mahia 2-1, ending their 10-match winless run against the champions.

During the 2021 campaign, Gor Mahia emerged 1-0 winners in the first meeting before the two sides shared the spoils in the reverse fixture. In the 2019 campaign, Gor Mahia proved too strong for Ingwe.

In the first-round meeting, they hammered Ingwe 3-1 before sealing a memorable double after thrashing them 4-1 in the second-round fixture. In that season alone, Gor Mahia scored seven goals against their rivals and conceded only two.

Ingwe’s better chances

According to Abich, who currently handles Division One side Kajiado FC, K’Ogalo’s recent problems coupled with the sacking of their coach would swing the favour to AFC, but only if they execute their game plan well. 

“I think as per now Gor Mahia are facing issues, problems and not one issue but many issues, chasing away their coach (Martins Neiva) tops the list (of the problems they are currently going through) and on top of that they have been posting poor results in the league and all the tournaments they have featured in so far this season,” Abich told SportsBoom.

“It means they will suffer more against AFC Leopards. They will not have it easy.” 

On Gor Mahia’s decision to fire Martins Neiva, Abich said: “I think it was not good to sack coach Martins. He should have been given a year or a full season to evaluate his performance.” 

Abich, however, reiterated the need for local clubs to embrace local coaches by saying: “We have seen enough of foreign coaches; they only come here to make money. I suggest teams like Gor Mahia and AFC Leopards should keep their trust in local coaches. 

“Tusker has a local coach, and they keep doing well season in and season out. But I don’t understand why Gor and AFC believe in foreign coaches. They don’t come here to work but to make money. It’s high time these two clubs changed their mentality toward local coaches and entrusted them with the duties.” 

Match prediction

Asked to predict the outcome of the derby, Abich said: “I will go for an AFC win or a draw. Gor Mahia has lost the dressing room, and it will take them time to recover. Remember, the same problem that Martins Neiva faced will resurface if AFC beats Gor. Zedekiah will face the same problem, and it may even be worse than what happened to the Brazilian.” 

Heading into Sunday’s derby, Ingwe are enjoying a better campaign than their rivals. Ingwe are sitting fifth in the 18-team league table with 11 points from eight matches. They have managed three wins, three draws, and two losses. 

Meanwhile, Gor Mahia’s campaign has not been the best, as they are sitting 12th with eight points from six matches. They have suffered two defeats—2-1 against Nairobi City Stars and 2-0 against Bandari FC—drawn two, and won two.

The wins came against Mathare United, whom they hammered 4-0 in their season opener, and Posta Rangers, whom they defeated 3-0. The unconvincing results forced the club to part ways with Martins Neiva.