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Ordinarily, the indefinite ban on political gatherings to curb the spread of coronavirus would occasion a drop in political activities in the country.

This is, however, not the case in the Coast region, as the diaries of most politicians remain packed.

In Mombasa, several political players have already hit the ground running to succeed Governor Hassan Joho, who is serving his second and final term.

Businessman Suleiman Shahbal, who is gunning for the seat for a record third time, has been criss-crossing the county to popularise his bid.

Between February and March alone, Shahbal has held over 20 meetings engaging opinion leaders, youth groups, Tuk Tuk leaders among others under an initiative dubbed Gumzo Maskani.

After lodging unsuccessful attempts to unseat Joho in 2013 and 2017 respectively, Shahbal has since developed a different approach and has now forged a rapport with the incumbent.

Pundits have been quick to link Shahbal’s newfound rapport with Joho to the award of the multi-billion shilling tender to develop the Buxton Housing project to his company, Buxton Point Apartment Ltd.

During its launch early last month, Shahbal said the project, being undertaken through public private partnership will create over 3,000 jobs.

“If we have 10 of such projects annually, those are 30,000 jobs created and this will help in eradicating poverty in the county. 

In the race to succeed Joho, the businessman is battling it out with other aspirants including Mvita MP Abdulswamad Nassir of ODM, Kisauni MP Ali Mbogo and former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar.

Pundits opine that while it is too early to predict the likely outcome of the 2022 gubernatorial race, one major factor will be whoever wins Joho’s support as well as the aspirants’ visions.

Other aspirants

“The struggle right now is to look for endorsement from Joho, which I believe is the target for the aspirants.

Shahbal’s chances will be bolstered if Joho endorses him and so are Nassir and Deputy Governor William Kingi.

The way Shahbal has positioned himself appears to be geared towards attracting endorsement from Joho,” said Coast Political analyst Prof Hassan Mwakimako of Pwani University.

Shahbal says his good rapport with Joho has nothing to do with a quest for endorsement. 

“We are in the Handshake era where all leaders are currently working together for the sake of unity.

We have never sat down with Joho to discuss succession politics. Our working relationship has been on matters development,” he said.

Like Shahbal, Abdulswamad is also burning the midnight oil to reach out to the masses. 

On Saturday, the Mvita MP held a meeting with women from the Pentecostal Assemblies of God Ziwani church where he urged the need of peaceful coexistence between religions.  

Shahbal’s handlers have dismissed the approaches by MPs aspiring to replace Joho as rudderless, saying they have only concentrated on their constituencies.

Pundits, however, say MPs aspiring to be governors are capitalising on resources at their disposal to declare their interests.

Bruising duel

But besides the MPs, a bruising duel is expected between Shahbal and former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar, another top contender spearheading the ‘Hustler movement’ in Mombasa.

 Buoyed by his oratory skills, Omar, Deputy President William Ruto’s key ally in the region, played immense role in delivering the Msambweni by-election where Independent candidate Feisal Abdalla Bader, won. 

Omar unsuccessfully ran against Shahbal and Joho in 2017 where he finished a third. He is hoping to build from where he left.

He boasts an edge in eloquence and he believes he can convince the electorate that he has ideas and strategies that will move Mombasa forward.

In Kilifi, all surveys have put Malindi legislator Aisha Jumwa ahead of the pack in the race to succeed Governor Amason Kingi.

Last week, Jumwa, another Hustler movement champion convened a consultative meeting attended by 28 Ward Reps in Kilifi. The meeting was attended by Deputy Speaker Stanley Kenga.

“As leaders, we focused on a new conversation that is centered on the economic transformation of our county.

Also, on our table of engagement was the shift of our regional politics and endorsement of my gubernatorial candidature in 2022,” said Jumwa. 

The other MCAs boycotted the meeting, saying Jumwa did not involve them. But according to analysts, dynamics are shifting and Kilifi people who have been passionate about the Orange party are beginning to resonate with ODM rebels like Jumwa.

“The person who was going to challenge Jumwa in Kilifi was Owen Baya but I think they have agreed that Baya settles for something else as she goes for the top seat,” says Mwakimako.

In Kwale, Governor Salim Mvurya has backed his deputy Fatma Achani to succeed him, but with Lungalunga MP Khatib Mwashetani, another perceived Ruto’s ally- also interested in succeeding Mvurya, observers envision a heated encounter.

Besides Mwashetani, Achani will also battle it out with Agriculture Principal Secretary Prof Hamadi Boga, brother to Omar Boga, who is also being mentioned in the race. 

However, Mvurya’s team says they are preparing well and are confident that Achani is the right successor.

“We have already endorsed her. The governor has said he will support her,” the official said.

It remains to be seen who will be the new faces to wade through the turbulent stage  set by Joho and Kingi, who have polished their political career by perfecting their aggressive style of combative politics.