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Many parts of Kenya are expected to receive depressed short rains during the October, November and December (OND) season, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has predicted.

In a seasonal forecast issued on Tuesday, the weatherman said that forecast indicates an increased likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions over the eastern parts among other arid and semi-arid lands of the country.

The season is likely to be marred with late onset of rainfall in some parts including eastern and north eastern Kenya.

However, ICPAC said, parts of western and north-western Kenya are likely to experience above-normal rainfall, potentially supporting agricultural productivity, pasture generation, and water resources availability.

“An early to normal onset is expected in much of the western parts of the region, including south-western Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya,” the forecast predicts.

Further, the seasonal forecast indicates an increased likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions over the eastern parts of the Horn of Africa.

The weatherman said climate models predict a transition to La Niña conditions, which would likely bring below-average rainfall to the eastern Horn of Africa.

“Southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania are expected to experience below-normal rainfall, with the highest probabilities in southern Ethiopia and central and northern Somalia,” it indicates.

The three months forecast was released during the 68th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 68) in Nairobi.

Speaking during the forum, the IGAD Executive Secretary Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, noted that the prediction highlights the collective need for urgent and coordinated action to address food insecurity and climate challenges in the region.

Dr Gebeyehu said the region is facing pressing challenges exacerbated by extreme climate events and socioeconomic factors.

“The seasonal forecast shared today underscores the urgent need for coordinated preparedness efforts by national governments, development agencies, and humanitarian partners. Together, we must prioritize early action for building resilient systems capable of addressing these evolving challenges,” Dr Gebeyehu said.