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With Kenya’s population projected to reach about 57.8 million by 2030, the government must implement the right health and education policies to address the growing social and economic needs of the people.

National Council for Population and Development (NCPD) says that changes in the population age structure have direct implications for the population growth as well as production and consumption of resources.

“The age structural changes can enable the country to gain from the demographic transition, commonly referred to as the demographic dividend, if the right economic and social policies, particularly in education and health, are put in place and implemented,” NCPD said in a 2023 first sessional paper on population policy.’

The council reported that the proportion of children below 15 years has been declining while the proportion of the youth, persons in the working age, women of reproductive age, and older persons has been increasing.

NCPD stated that the elderly, those of the age of 60 and above are the fastest growing segment of the Kenyan population with their numbers having increased from 1,926,051 in 2009 to 2,740,555 in 2019, thus representing an increase of about 42 per cent in a span of 10 years.

“This rapid increase has implications for the country’s social protection measures since the official retirement age in Kenya is 60 years. Majority of the old Kenyans are women at 55 per cent of the total population,” the council said.

It added: “The main challenges faced by older persons are poor health, inadequate income security, and social protection violence, abuse, neglect and ageism. More than half of the elderly in the country live in absolute poverty, and are the poorest age group in the country.”

Between 2009 and 2019, the proportion of children below age 15 decreased in 43 counties while the proportion of the population in the working age increased in 45 counties.

Country’s population

NCPD said that the proportion of the population in the 0-14 age group is an indicator of the youthfulness of a country’s population where in 2019, children aged 0-14 in Kenya constituted 39 percent of the total population thus implying that the country’s population is still youthful.

Counties with about half or more of the population in this age group are Mandera, West Pokot, Wajir, Samburu, and Narok compared to Embu, Kiambu, Nairobi, Nyeri, and Kirinyaga counties where less than one-third of the population is below age 15.

Further NCPD established that in 2019, the working age population in Kenya was estimated to be 57 per cent of the population up from 54 per cent in 2009 where the majority were men at 53 per cent.

“Between 2009 and 2019, the proportion of youth (age 18-34) increased marginally from 28.7 to 29 per cent of the total population while that of women of reproductive age (15-49) increased from 48.3 to 50.4 per cent of the total female population. As the number of women of reproductive age continues to increase the demand for reproductive health and related services will also increase,” the sessional paper read in part.

The council stated in the report that there are about a million Kenyans living with varying disabilities constituting 2.2 per cent of the total population.

Women with 57 per cent are the majority compared to men in a population that has been denied opportunities to improve their living standards.

Currently, only 1.2 per cent of them are employed formally in the public sector, which is much lower than the target of five per cent set out in section 13 of the Persons with Disabilities Act of 2003.