Support for the Jubilee Party has nearly tripled in recent months following former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s public backing of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i as the party’s flag bearer in the upcoming 2027 elections, a new survey reveals.

According to the latest TIFA Research survey released on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, Jubilee’s support has surged from 3% in August 2025 to 11% in November 2025, making it the third most popular political party in Kenya behind ODM (20%) and UDA (16%).

Matiang’i effect

TIFA attributed the dramatic increase in Jubilee’s popularity to Uhuru Kenyatta’s more visible support of Matiang’i’s positioning within the party leadership ahead of the next general election.

“The proportions who indicate that they identify with no party, as well as those stating that they are ‘undecided’ about this have decreased, the main beneficiary (aside from ODM) being Jubilee, whose support has nearly tripled since August (from 3% to 11%), perhaps as a result of former President Uhuru’s more public support of his former CS Fred Matiang’i’s new position as Deputy Party Leader ahead of the next election,” TIFA stated in its report.

The polling firm noted that while ODM and UDA remain the dominant forces in Kenyan politics, Jubilee’s resurgence represents a significant shift in the political landscape.

Declining undecided voters

The survey also found that the proportion of Kenyans who say they have no political party affiliation declined from 31 per cent in August 2025 to 22 per cent in November 2025, while those who described themselves as undecided dropped from 10 per cent to 6 per cent over the same period.

According to TIFA, this decline in uncommitted voters appears to have primarily benefited Jubilee and ODM, rather than the ruling UDA party.

Opposition positioning

The poll comes as Jubilee positions itself within the opposition camp, with expectations that it will join forces with other opposition parties to challenge President William Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027.

Among supporters of major political parties, TIFA found that 71 per cent of Jubilee supporters expect ODM to be in the opposition by 2027, the third-highest figure after Democracy for the Citizens’ Party (DCP) at 80 per cent and Wiper Patriotic Front at 75 per cent.

The survey also showed growing political mobilisation, with 26 per cent of Kenyans saying they have attended at least one political rally since the 2022 general election.

The poll was conducted between November 10 and 17, 2025, interviewing 2,053 randomly selected Kenyan adults across all 47 counties with a margin of error of ±2.16%.