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Infectious diseases are likely to result 12 times the number of deaths in 2050 compared with 2020 if events caused directly by human beings on the environment continue at the current rate, a new United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) report has warned.

Land-use changes, deforestation and certain agricultural practices disrupt ecosystems and increase human-wildlife interactions, creating conditions for zoonotic diseases – infectious diseases caused by pathogens that transfer to humans from non-human hosts – spill over.

Ecological factors, the report says, play an extremely important role in zoonotic disease emergence and are critical for safeguarding planetary health.

Navigating New Horizons, a global foresight report on planetary health and human wellbeing emphasises that these events are already considered as activities increasing the risk of the emergence and spread of zoonotic disease.

“Recent studies indicate that if the increase in spill over events continues, estimated at between 5 and 8 per cent annually, the most common types of such pathogens are likely to result in 12 times the number of deaths in 2050 compared with 2020,” the report notes.    

Ancient microbes

Further, it reveals that the melting of ancient microbes – such as bacteria and viruses – hidden in a permanently frozen layer on or under Earth’s surface unleashed is likely to be a catastrophic global health emergency.

“In recent decades, the Arctic – a polar region located at the northernmost part of Earth – has been warming much faster—four times in fact—than in the rest of the globe,” the report says, noting that the unprecedented warming has led to the thawing (the process of ice, snow, or another frozen substance becoming liquid or soft as a result of warming up) of vast areas, which scientists forewarn hold hidden dangers including massive quantities of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

Degradation of Permafrost area, a permanently frozen layer on or under Earth’s surface could also facilitate the transport of toxic waste and radioactive material into the environment, endangering ecosystem function and human health.

The report pinpoints recent outbreaks, such as SARS, influenza A/H1N1, H5N1, MERS, Nipah virus disease, Ebola and Covid-19 – that have resulted in substantial human and economic losses – have also underscored the potential of previously unknown or neglected pathogens to cause epidemics.

Chronic heat

Due to the catastrophic temperature increase beyond between 2.1°C and 3.9°C by 2100, by 2050 nearly one-quarter of the global population of adults aged 69 years and older, will be exposed to chronic and acute dangerous heat extremes, putting up to an additional 246 million older people at risk—largely in Africa and Asia —with far reaching impacts on people’s physical and mental health, this report warns.

“Health care systems, air quality, water quality, and water-related diseases, infrastructure and service disruptions, labour productivity and wellbeing will also be highly affected,” the report highlights. These climate impacts will also have disproportionate effects on women.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently reported 891 human cases of avian influenza (H5N1) from 24 countries resulting from contact with live or dead birds or contaminated environments.

“These diseases may pose significant systematic global public health risks due to their potential to spread rapidly and unpredictably,” the reports points out.

This, in combination with the potential of previously unknown or neglected pathogens to cause epidemics with an estimated 1.7 million undiscovered viruses in the global virome, a collection of all viruses that are found in or on humans, including viruses causing acute, persistent, or latent infection, and viruses integrated into the human genome, such as endogenous retroviruses, the aggregate of all viruses across the entire biosphere (Lawrence et al. 2023) amplifies concern about the issue.

The report identifies eight critical global shifts that are accelerating the triple planetary crisis of climate change, nature and biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste.

The shifts include humanity’s degradation of the natural world, the rapid development of technologies such as AI, competition for natural resources, widening inequalities and declining trust in institutions. These shifts are creating a polycrisis, in which global crises are amplifying, accelerating and synchronizing – with huge implications for human and planetary wellbeing.

While commenting on the report outcome, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen called on the governments across the world to act immediately.

Technological challenges

“As the impacts of multiple crises intensify, now is the time to get ahead of the curve and protect ourselves from emerging challenges,” she said, pointing out that the rapid rate of change, uncertainty and technological developments being witnessed, against a backdrop of geopolitical turbulence, means any country can be thrown off course more easily and more often.

“By monitoring signals of change and using the foresight approach outlined in this report – including looking outside the traditional environmental space – the world can avoid repeating mistakes of the past and focus on solutions that can withstand future disruption,” she said.

Eighteen accompanying signals of change – identified by hundreds of global experts through regional and stakeholder consultations that included youth – offer a deeper glimpse into potential disruptions, both positive and negative, that the world must prepare for.

The report, a culmination of 18 months of data gathering and experiential learning aimed at equipping UNEP and the wider UN with a more anticipatory approach, also points out that Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is approaching critical levels.