Today is a tipping point in the history of Kenya’s political economy. On the one hand, we have a National Assembly that must make the final call on the 2024 Finance Bill, the one document that has united Kenyans – and particularly stirred the youthful generation – in their quest to oppose it.

It’s likely that the controversial bill – which spells out the government’s tax and spend measures for the next financial year – will sail through with a slight majority amid huge acrimony on the floor of the House. And outside the National Assembly, angry protesters will be watching and waiting. And that is where the powder keg will be, meaning that Kenya will find itself in a precarious situation akin to a citizen takeover if they choose to peacefully barricade Parliament Buildings.

What will happen during and after the voting – and how the fallout will be handled – will have major historical and political ramifications for the country. The real and present danger here is that unless the situation is managed with Solomonic wisdom, it can degenerate and spiral out of control for days on end, and for the first time, there will be a confrontation between citizens and the political class, a situation without precedent in Kenya’s history.

First, it will not come as a surprise if the protesters choose to barricade the National Assembly. And given their ability to mobilise resources – food, money, medicines and lawyers to bail out the arrested – they can keep vigil for days. It is also worth noting that the older generations have taken the bold step to support the Gen Z on the grounds that they cannot sit back and watch as their children take on the government over the tax measures, some of which will harm businesses and compromise disposable incomes for individuals and families.

True, Kenya has a history of levying high taxes, though in the heat of the moment, it is easy to imagine that “burdensome” or “punitive” taxes began last year when the current administration first presented its Budget. In July 1940, for instance, the colonial administration published an Income Tax Amendment Bill the effect of which was “to double the average taxation hitherto paid”, according to a newspaper report from that time.

A month later, the Legislature imposed a surcharge of 10 per cent on Customs and Excise Duties, a move that was expected to raise 75,000 pounds annually, which was to become Kenya’s contribution to war taxation to support Britain’s involvement in the Second World War.

And when he came to power in 2002, one of the measures that President Mwai Kibaki put in place was to raise taxation and widen the tax bracket, both of which were met with criticism, but which had the benefit of ensuring that Kenya managed to fund about 95 per cent of its Budget at a time when the Kibaki administration had fallen out badly with western powers over accusations of corruption.

In part, the current opposition to higher taxation has its roots in the culture of widespread tax exemptions that have been prevalent with past administrations, and which are now being removed in the 2024 Finance Bill. Because much of Kenya’s upper middle class – and government bureaucrats –  thrive in the import business – vehicles, building materials, finishings, machinery, food, beverages and related products – their families are feeling the effects of the erosion of their household incomes. This, in part, has informed their decision to fight the proposed taxes, a large chunk of which will not even go to development but to paying back historical loans.

This is what is making the current political situation a highly explosive mix. Either the government will cave in and the status quo will obtain, or the rules of engagement in Kenya’s political economy will be rewritten fundamentally. The question is: Which way will the country tip?

— The writer is the Editor-in-Chief of the Nairobi Law Monthly and Nairobi Business Monthly