With his eyes trained on the 2027 General Elections, President William Ruto is pulling out all the stops to ensure former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is elected as the next African Union Commission chairman at the elections slated for mid this month.

Analysts believe that Ruto’s support for Raila’s bid to become the next AUC chairperson is a complex, calculated, and multi-layered move that speaks to regional power dynamics, national politics, and his larger ambitions for Kenya’s role on the African continent.

With his eyes on the price, Dr Ruto aims to hit two birds with one stone -using the AUC seat to elevate Kenya’s status on the continent while at the same time use his support for the former Prime Minister in return for inheritance of the former’s political strongholds of Nyanza and Western. A win for Raila at the AUC would significantly transform the country’s political dynamics with the President in pole position to inherit five million plus votes from the former Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader’s strongholds.

“Tell me if Raila wins and goes to AU, who would you prefer to be your president, if not President Ruto?” Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi posed to the crowd during President Ruto’s recent tour of Western.

With political stakes high and Raila tipped for the continental job, Mudavadi said Ruto would be the main political beneficiary as he is poised to automatically inherit Nyanza and Western.

Voting patterns

Data from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) indicates that the two regions had a combined four million registered voters in 2022 with Western having 2,217,948 voters while Nyanza 2,160,439 voters, a significant vote to swing the battle ground.

Since the introduction of multipartism in 1992, the two regions have always leaned heavily towards the opposition. This has been replicated in 2013, 2017 and 2022 with the electorate overwhelmingly voting for Raila.

Mudavadi’s assertion that the Luhya community should back Ruto underscores a potential shift in allegiance that could reshape political dynamics and see Ruto bag the voting bloc.

Insiders within the Kenya Kwanza administration say Dr Ruto is determined to reverse the voting pattern in the two regions and turn them into his support base. With the four million plus votes beckoning, Mudavadi said the government would use all means to ensure Raila’s victory at AUC. Political pundits say the AUC chairmanship would likely limit Raila’s active participation in regional political affairs, effectively creating a political void that Ruto intends to fill.

Consequently, by positioning himself as the best alternative in the region through direct engagement with the constituents, Ruto hopes to penetrate areas that have historically resisted State influence.

Already Ruto has signaled a potential alliance with leaders from Nyanza and Western ahead of the next General Elections. Recently, ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga hinted at an alliance between the party and United Democratic Alliance ahead of the next General Elections. Wanga has since fallen out with some of her colleagues in ODM over the proposal with the party’s Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Ugenya governor James Orengo warning that such a move was suicidal and likely kill ODM. Wanga argues that the decision by President Ruto to appoint former senior party leaders from the region as Cabinet Secretaries was sufficient ground to cement their relationship with UDA.

Leaders divided

“We won’t and cannot afford to remain in the opposition again. If you don’t like Ruto, that’s your own entitlement. For us, we have decided to stand with Ruto,” she asserted.

Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi also warned his colleagues in ODM against trying to dissuade them from supporting Ruto.

“I am in government and you can’t expect me to join you in opposing the State just because some few people in my party ODM are against it. No. If you want to oppose the government do so at your own volition,” Wandayi declared at a funeral in Siaya last weekend.

Busia governor Dr Paul Otuoma was more blunt when he said voters in the region would have no option but to vote for the President in 2027 should he ensure Raila captures the AUC seat. National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula says voters from the former Raila strongholds should reciprocate the President’s development record in the regions. to Mudavadi and Wanga argue that it would be illogical for the two regions to remain in Opposition since Raila has already agreed to work with the government.

Several Members of Parliament from Western Kenya pledged their support for President Ruto, hinting at a broader alliance that could bring together Western and Nyanza in what they termed a “super alliance” for the 2027 elections.

This would not only enable him to establish a stronger foothold but also to appeal directly to voters who have complained of being overlooked by previous administrations.

Ruto’s fresh political maneuvers come at a time when realignments in political affiliations are increasingly becoming evident after his fall out with impeached former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua

Since his impeachment, Gachagua has been leading an onslaught against the Ruto regime, mobilising voters in Mt Kenya to edge out his former boss in 2027.

In his bid to win over Nyanza and Western, Ruto is banking on leveraging on development initiatives in the two regions, courtesy of the political goodwill from the local leadership.

As such President Ruto has been crafting a narrative of positive change and progress. According to political scientist Benson Odhiambo, such a discreet strategy could significantly influence voter behaviour in the upcoming elections, making the political landscape in the region increasingly competitive as Dr Ruto attempts to consolidate support in a historically opposition-dominated area.

“It’s evident that the President is steadily consolidating Western Kenya votes by wooing them by all means. With key leaders from Western on his side, he may make great inroads in the region ahead of 2027,” explained Odhiambo.

Odhiambo notes that the 2027 general election will test the strength of the emerging alliance and determine whether the residents of Western are ready to embrace a new political direction or if they would return to the opposition. Political scientist Herman Manyora notes that by making frequent visits to the region, Ruto has started to foster an environment where residents are more open to the politics of the ruling class, a stark contrast to their previous defiance.

Manyora says Ruto’s strategy to reach out to the opponents, particularly his support to Raila for AU position, has contributed to the current political shift, making him the man to beat ahead of the 2027 presidential race.