When President William Ruto brought some high-ranking members of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party into his government, the gesture was received with mixed reactions. The members appointed as Cabinet secretaries were by all means staunch allies of Opposition chief Raila Odinga who, if he asked them to jump, will only ask how high.

Several months after their appointment, a section of the Orange party members have joined the choir in singing the praises of President Ruto’s orchestra while some are warning that supporting him in the 2027 polls will sound the death-knell for the party.

But there are some members who have been categorical that to remain relevant, ODM must field a presidential candidate in the 2027 general election and take on President Ruto.

The proponents of not fielding a candidate base their arguments on Raila’s quest for the African Union Commission chairmanship in elections slated for February. However, there are those warning the party not to be part of the baggage associated with incumbency, a move some have argued cost Raila the presidency in 2022.

Kenya is an emerging democracy, and with that, one would expect that a solid political party that has existed for more than 15 years should make bold moves and stand by them. Supporting or not supporting President Ruto’s re-election bid seems to have split the party almost in the middle.

Stung by the results of the 2022 presidential polls, in which Raila was supported by President Uhuru Kenyatta, those against supporting Ruto have every reason to worry. The scepticism is understandable given that the polls proved that voters could still defy incumbency, the ‘deep state’, intimidation and deep pockets and vote the opposite way.

A section of the Orange party seems to be despondent, having lost not only hope in the current administration but also faith that a quarter of the promises made during the campaigns will be fulfilled. The Luo Nyanza and Western support may not positively contribute to Ruto’s success, by giving him a greater foothold in the two regions than ever before.

Ruto’s rapprochement with Raila and the incorporation of the ODM leader’s lieutenants in his broad-based government has endeared him to those who are reaping from those appointed to the plum positions. Ruto is no longer a victim of hatred among Luos. It bolsters his political cards. On the other hand, in the run-up to the 2022 polls, Uhuru’s preference for Raila irked both Ruto and Mudavadi, making the latter duo unite against Raila.

ODM’s support for Ruto means that the Orange party will take liability and credit for the latter three years of the Kenya Kwanza administration. Ruto will have brand association. He may secure votes if citizens are happy with Ruto’s first term or lose votes if they are unhappy.

Times and circumstances have changed, and ODM’s campaign for Ruto in the 2027 will have many variables and interests with a lot of casualties. However, it is high time the Orange party made its stand known on whether it is supporting the current administration or not.

For more than three decades in the political arena, Raila has been known not to sit on the fence. He has been a straightforward politician who does not shy away from making unpopular decisions and stand by them.

In the circumstances, Raila finds himself between a rock and a hard place. Should he declare support for Ruto openly, he will have inside rebellion. Already, a section of the Orange party from the Gusii region are threatening a walk-out should they not get what they are demanding.

The 2027 polls are likely to see the electorate motivated to defy the incumbency and vote for another presidential candidate of their choice. A majority of Kenyans have been reeling from the high cost of living, shrinking pay slips, tough economic conditions, difficulty doing business and a high rate of unemployment.

For the first time in many years, the middle class is feeling the pinch of high taxation with minimal services from the government. The anger stems from a wide range of unfulfilled promises from the Kenya Kwanza administration, the arrogance and acerbic tongues of close allies of President Ruto and their chest-thumping that the President must get a second term despite his dwindling approval ratings.

Although there is about two years and seven months left before the next polls, the Kenya Kwanza administration still has time to rectify its mistakes. Time will tell whether they will convince the electorate that they should be re-elected.

ODM must now make known its stand and provide direction to its supporters, members and acolytes.

— The writer is Political Journalists Association of Kenya chair – [email protected]