The Service Party (TSP) leader and Laikipia East Member of Parliament Mwangi Kiunjuri’s active campaigning for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election has raised political discussions on his future and that of his party ahead of the 2027 general election.

Kiunjuri has been championing campaigns in the constituency alongside the senior UDA leaders, yet despite this, he has yet to be relieved of his duties as TSP head, a party in which he successfully ran for Laikipia East’s parliamentary seat.

In this case, Kiunjuri’s move raises the question of whether he is slowly shifting his loyalty to President William Ruto’s UDA or maintaining the unity of the coalition.

The continued backing of a UDA candidate has also created a question about TSP’s political clout. Some may view that Kiunjuri’s campaign for another party rather than popularising his own party might send mixed messages on TSP’s ambitions and its ability to play for the election.

But some argue that, because TSP did not sponsor a candidate in the Ol Kalou race, backing UDA aligns with coalition politics, and it is a sign of unity in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.

Kiunjuri’s political future.

The former Cabinet Secretary has been variously connected with a bid for the governorship in Laikipia County in the 2027 elections. With the recent visibility with UDA leaders and Olkalou by-election campaigns, speculations have increased that he may be soliciting the ruling party’s endorsement or support of his bid despite being the party leader for the TSP.

Kiunjuri may also be preparing to play the role of Kenya Kwanza’s preferred candidate in Laikipia, a region where UDA might also consider putting up its own gubernatorial candidate.

The deal would mean that he would not have to deal with the UDA, which is the ruling party and well-financed, and would get the coalition to come together around him.

One alternative being considered is whether or not Kiunjuri might eventually open the door to the dissolution of TSP or even defect completely before the next general election.

Although Kiunjuri has emerged as a great proponent of individual politics as opposed to party politics, his longstanding backing of UDA candidates instead of fielding his own candidates in the by-elections has inevitably raised questions over whether he’ll eventually run for the ruling party’s Laikipia Governor’s ticket and ditch his own political vehicle, which he has often referred to as “a hunting dog”.

If it occurred, it would have a huge impact on the political landscape of the county and give UDA a boost in a political landscape where Kiunjuri continues to play a role.

Lakipia governor’s race

The Laikipia East Member of Parliament has declared not to defend his bid as a lawmaker and instead decided to run for the Laikipia County CEO position in the 2027 general elections, which he unsuccessfully sought in 2013.  

Kiunjuri will be battling other political heavyweights in the county, including former women representative Catherine Waruguru, who is inclined to the former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens party (DCP), and the current Chairperson of the Kenya Revenue Authority, Ndiritu Muriithi, who will be seeking to reclaim the seat after an ouster by the incumbent governor Joshua Irungu in 2022, who is serving his second and last term as the governor.

As the 2027 elections approach, Kiunjuri’s political manoeuvres will continue to be a focal point of interest, with his involvement in the Ol Kalou campaigns serving as a glimpse of the political dynamics that might unfold in upcoming elections.

But whether his actions are just a reflection of a coalition’s loyalty or a sign of a political shift is one of the big puzzles in Kenya Kwanza’s succession planning for the next election.