The upcoming African Union Commission (AUC) election is not just another diplomatic contest — it is a political gamble with far-reaching consequences for President William Ruto. By championing Raila Odinga’s bid for the chairmanship, Ruto has tied Kenya’s success at the AU to his own political fortunes. If Odinga wins, Kenya secures a prestigious continental seat, Ruto strengthens his statesmanlike image, and — perhaps most importantly — one of his greatest political rivals is removed from the local scene. But if the bid fails, Ruto risks not only a diplomatic embarrassment but also a reinvigorated Odinga who could return home ready to lead an energised opposition ahead of 2027.

The week of February 12 will be a long and defining one. The grand contest on February 15 and 16 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, will see the next AUC chairperson chosen. These elections are anything but predictable.

The AU’s voting system is notoriously complex, requiring candidates to secure backing from multiple regions and navigate behind-the-scenes political horse-trading. Kenya learned this the hard way in 2020 when Amina Mohamed’s bid for the same seat collapsed despite strong initial support. At the last moment, key East African allies — Burundi, Djibouti, and Uganda — failed to vote in Kenya’s favour, a stark reminder that in African diplomacy, promises and final votes are not always the same thing.

Kenya has long sought to position itself as a continental powerhouse, but its influence within the AU has fluctuated over the years. Under Jomo Kenyatta, the country projected itself as a key voice in African unity, balancing ties between the East and West while advocating for regional integration. Moi’s era saw a more cautious but still strategic engagement, maintaining Kenya’s role within what was then called the Organisation of African Unity. However, in recent years, Nairobi has faced stiff competition from countries like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa, all vying for greater influence in continental affairs.

For Ruto, this election is not just about continental diplomacy — it’s a test of his political manoeuvring. He has framed Odinga’s candidacy as a matter of national pride, calling for unity in securing the seat. But make no mistake, there’s also a shrewd political calculation at play. A victorious Odinga would be out of the country for years, leaving a void in Kenya’s opposition and making Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid significantly smoother. Conversely, an Odinga defeat would mean the veteran politician returns home with renewed political capital, having demonstrated that he still commands international recognition.

That is why this election has drawn such intense interest — not just from African capitals but from Western powers as well. Odinga’s strongest competitor is Djibouti’s Mahmoud Youssouf, who has rallied strong support from francophone Africa and European heavyweights like France. Kenya has poured significant diplomatic energy into securing votes, but history has shown that personal lobbying and regional alliances often trump merit in AU elections. If Odinga loses, it won’t just be his loss — it will be Ruto’s, too, and the President will have to contend with the fallout.

As the days count down, one thing is certain: this election will shape more than just the AU’s leadership. It will define Kenya’s diplomatic influence, test Ruto’s ability to deliver on an international stage, and potentially redraw the country’s political battlefield. Whether this gamble pays off or backfires remains to be seen — but either way, its impact will be felt long after the votes are cast.

— The writer is a history Lecturer and UASU chapter Trustee at Alupe University-Kenya; [email protected]