It has been three weeks since opposition chief, Raila Odinga, started what he termed as mass action. This mass action has turned out to be disruptive protests.

However, the protests which he announced for every Monday and Thursday are now boxing him into a corner, and eating away at the pillars of his political support that have kept him viable for more than three decades.

The expected national uprising has failed to materialise. The vast majority of Kenyans have rejected the protests. People are tired of him causing trouble every time he loses.  There are no protests in Western, Eastern, North Eastern, Coast, Central and Rift Valley. Protests are only in the four counties that make up Luo Nyanza— Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Migori and sections of Nairobi.In Nairobi, the major disruptions have been in Kibra, Mathare, and Embakasi, which are largely inhabited by members of his community.  Of course, if one was to read the media, they might be forgiven to think that the entire country is up in flames.

The West has abandoned Raila. They have steadfastly supported him since they “adopted” him as a counterforce to President Mwai Kibaki’s independent minded economic policy direction. This support has seen him being accommodated into government after losing elections, and shielded him from accountability for the deaths and destruction his actions have caused.

It was very telling that on the very day that Raila was leading demos in Nairobi, the American ambassador to Kenya, Mrs Meg Whitman, was hosting over 300 investors from her country in an investment conference in the same capital. She was categorical that the August 2022 general election was the most transparent the country had ever held, and exhorted her compatriots that Kenya was the place to invest.

The message from the African Union (AU) was equally as emphatic. The chairperson, Moussa Faki, reiterated that Kenya held a successful election last year, whose outcome was subsequently confirmed by the Supreme Court. In other words, internationally and in the African continent, Raila is completely isolated. His claims that he has information from a whistleblower which shows that he won the elections is clearly being treated by the international community as “hot air.” He now looks like just another sore loser who will not accept defeat.

It is not lost on Kenyans that Raila has not told his supporters to be peaceful, and is yet to address the vandalism, looting and destruction of property by his followers during the violent protests.

The violence is not working. Violence, and the threat of it, has been a very potent tool for Raila. His protests always end in violence. This threat has been his greatest weapon. Unfortunately for him, despite all the violence so far unleashed, President William Ruto is unmoved. 

Indeed, so unperturbed is the President that in the middle of Raila’s demos, he went for a weeklong tour of Europe, where he met the top leaders of Germany, Belgium and the European Union, and signed deals worth billions of shillings. On this front, Ruto has completely outflanked Raila.

Finally, the destruction of property during the protests is mainly centred in Kisumu, Migori, Homa Bay and Siaya. As the residents of those towns destroy them, residents of the country’s other major towns blissfully continuing building theirs.  There’ll be a heavy price to pay. The work that Kisumu governor, Prof. Anyang Nyongo, has done in the last five years that profiled Kisumu as a leading investment destination in Kenya is all in ruins.

Any investor who was eyeing Kisumu before the riots has definitely shelved those plans. The Governor will have to work very hard to convince the existing now very jittery investors in that city not to pack up and go.

So, the walls are closing in on the man. His response is to double down on his discredited claims, and issue even more strident and hyperbolic threats. If one finds themselves in a hole, they should stop digging. It is probably time for him to hit the pause button, and reflect on where the rains started beating him.