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The nomination of prominent opposition figure John Mbadi as Cabinet Secretary for the Treasury presents a fascinating political and economic paradox that Kenyans must ponder.

For someone who has been one of the most vocal critics of the administration’s economic policies, notably the Bottom-Up Economic Model, this appointment could be either a strategic coup or a potential minefield in Kenya’s political game of chess. His past criticisms will undoubtedly shape his approach to his new role.

While comparisons with his predecessor, Njuguna Ndung’u, are inevitable, Mbadi’s credentials are not in question; his extensive background in finance and leadership, coupled with his experience as chair of the Public Accounts Committee, provide him with the expertise required for this role. However, the real challenge lies in reconciling his previous opposition to government policies with his new responsibilities as the architect of Kenya Kwanza’s financial master plan.

The Bottom-Up model, championed by President Ruto, aims to address economic inequalities by empowering the lower socioeconomic class using taxes from the employed and corporate world for change. This model contrasts sharply with the trickle-down approach, which assumes that benefits provided to the wealthy will eventually “trickle down” to the less fortunate.

Mbadi’s party, ODM, and the greater Azimio coalition have been critical of this model, dismissing it as populist rhetoric lacking practical substance. As such, one of the immediate questions for Mbadi is how he plans to address and potentially alleviate these criticisms and how he plans to align himself with a policy framework that he and his party have previously mocked.

Further, the skepticism surrounding the Bottom-Up model is not unfounded. Critics argue that the model is underpinned by political rhetoric rather than a coherent economic strategy. Mbadi must articulate a clear and detailed plan for implementing this agenda, addressing its feasibility and effectiveness concerns. Can he transform the theoretical underpinnings of this model into actionable policies that yield tangible benefits? This is one of the key questions that he must answer to gain public and political confidence.

The most pressing issue is Kenya’s dwindling fiscal health, with significant economic challenges, including high public debt levels, inflation, and youth unemployment. As a former critic of the administration’s fiscal policies, Mbadi is now expected to muster how he will devise strategies to stabilize the economy, manage debt effectively, and foster growth.

This raises fundamental questions about how he plans to balance austerity measures with the need for economic stimulus to spur growth by also exciting the velocity of money in the economy. Will he champion cutting public spending, increasing taxes, or both? How will he ensure that these measures do not disproportionately affect the most vulnerable segments of society? Those are the questions that critics are asking.

The public’s rejection of the 2024 Finance Bill, seen as imposing burdensome taxes, echoes Mbadi’s challenge in reconciling fiscal policy with public sentiment. However, his ability to address the public’s concerns while ensuring the government has the revenue to function effectively will be a testament to his leadership. His ability to navigate these challenges will be the litmus test for his tenure as Treasury Secretary, with his appointment raising questions about his political alignment and loyalty.

By accepting a position in an administration led by a rival party, is Mbadi signalling a shift in his political beliefs, or is this a strategic move to influence policy from within?

Much as Mbadi’s track record as a leader of the minority party and his experience in public accounts oversight provide him with a unique perspective on government accountability and transparency, translating this into effective governance will require deft political manoeuvring and a willingness to confront entrenched interests.

— The writer is People Daily’s Business Editor