Raila Odinga’s recent pact with President William Ruto has caused an upheaval in Kenya’s complex political architecture, throwing the main actors and their supporters into a spin.

Amid the tectonic shifts in the complex dynamics already revealing major realignments and intrigues, Raila appears to hold the trump card, either way across the political divide.

To those who have studied his career since he took over the mantle of the doyen of opposition politics from his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, it is no surprise that Raila is the most influential politician in the current political quagmire in Kenya.

The audacity and dexterity of his oscillation between the opposition and government has baffled and humbled his opponents and allies alike, even as he crafts his latest move that will see him call the shots well ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Like him or despise him, Raila has always been at the centre of every election in Kenya since the historic 2002 vote that swept the oligarchic Kanu party out of power after 40 years following the “second liberation struggle” and reintroduction of multiparty politics.

Not even his shock loss in last month’s African Union Commission chairperson election has dimmed his indefatigable spirit as he displayed last weekend during a burial ceremony where he chided critics of his political union with Ruto.

Exuding his customary riddle-laden political pitch, Raila defended the controversial pact, saying it was in the interest of peace, national cohesion, and offers an opportunity for sober reflection after a tumultuous period in the country’s history since the last election.

He told critics to “hold their horses” before 2027, suggesting that at age 80-plus he still holds sway over Kenyan politics, publicly stating that he has won every presidential election since 2007, including the controversial one in 2022 against Ruto, his current political partner.

He was keen to assert his dominant role in the emerging dicey equation complicated by a new force in Kenyan politics – the Gen Z wave of young Kenyans yearning for change and their rightful share in the political, socio-economic democratic space.

While it may not be difficult for Raila to deal with the “usual suspects” in both government and the opposition, the Gen Z constitute a different ball game. Politically conscious, technologically savvy, amorphous and non-compromising, they wield a significant demographic dividend.

They represent a new chapter in the nation’s political evolution, especially after the popular mass protests that brought Ruto’s government to its knees, prompting his overture to Raila for face-saving redemption.

That Raila obliged, seemingly shedding his long-held identity as “Baba” of protests, warrior of the democratic struggle and human rights that inspired the younger generation of protesters, this act left them and the opposition disgruntled orphans.

Yet, Raila, him of many titles – “Agwambo”, the enigma and “Tinga” the bulldozer to legions of his diehard militant supporters – the “collabo” with Ruto may just be another charismatic phase of his dizzying political choreography.

How he handles the perceived betrayal in his historical base to bridge the ideological gap or political rift with this constituency will prove to be Raila’s ultimate test.

Kenyans are sceptical whether the 10-point pact with Ruto will address the litany of woes that have bedevilled Kenya since independence, perpetuated in every successive government:

Bad governance, impunity, corruption, poverty, unemployment (especially among the youth), economic, social and electoral injustices.

– The writer comments on political affairs; albertoleny@gmail.com-