When Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo stated that Raila Odinga is “damned if he joins the government and damned if he does not”, it underscored the challenging position the prominent opposition leader is facing. Raila remains an enigma in Kenyan politics, yet even the most astute leaders seek advice. He finds himself in a catch-22, but which way Raila?

Dear Raila Odinga, I would like to tell you a story. Once upon a time in ancient Greece, there lived a king named Oedipus, the ruler of Thebes. Prophecy fated King Oedipus to kill his father and marry his mother. To avoid this dire fate, his parents, King Laius and Queen Jocasta, abandoned him as a baby. Try as they might, they could not defy fate. After growing up in a different royal household, Oedipus unintentionally killed his biological father during a roadside argument. He eventually wed his biological mother, fulfilling the prophecy despite his parents’ attempts to stop it.

Oedipus’s discovery of the truth horrified him. His mother took her own life, and in his despair, he blinded himself. If he had ignored the prophecy, he would have unknowingly walked into his doomed fate. But even in avoiding it, he still met the same tragic end.

This story illustrates that sometimes, regardless of the choices one makes, the outcomes can be disastrous. Raila, you find yourself in a political dilemma reminiscent of Oedipus, damned if you do and damned if you do not. Whatever path you choose, the risks could define or ruin your legacy.

If you remain in opposition, you might uphold your principles by not joining a government you have long criticised, but you could risk becoming irrelevant. A divided opposition without a cohesive strategy could enable Ruto to consolidate power unchallenged. Although you have led opposition politics for decades, victory has often eluded you. Failing to adopt a fresh approach may result in you being viewed as a spent force respected yet powerless, much like Oedipus after his downfall.

Running independently in 2027 offers a chance to redefine your political future, but it is a high-risk gamble. Without strong backing from political allies, you could find yourself isolated, unable to rally enough support to win. Just as Oedipus walked blindly into his fate, despite trying to escape it, you could face political oblivion if you miscalculate your next move.

Should you choose to join President Ruto’s government, you might acquire short-term political relevance, but at a considerable cost, as many political analysts suggest. This decision could be perceived as a betrayal of your lifelong struggle for democracy and reform. Your grassroots supporters, such as Omosh One Hour, Usiku wa Manane, Nuru Okanga, and others who have stood by you for years, may feel abandoned, weakening your political base. In politics, where the future is unpredictable, you might become a pawn in Ruto’s administration, lacking actual power to influence government policy. Ultimately, you could find yourself sidelined and diminished politically. This is if President Ruto uses a strategy of appearing weak when he is strong, and strong when he is weak, solely to entice you.

On the other hand, you stand to gain more by aligning with Ruto than with any other candidate. The advantages of collaborating with Ruto are apparent, offering immediate and ongoing benefits. The broad-based government is evidence of this, as several of your allies hold key Cabinet positions. With the upcoming reshuffle of principal secretaries, your ODM could gain even more.

Dear Raila, given the potential advantages at stake, it seems that supporting Ruto in the upcoming 2027 election is the rational choice. The benefits of this alliance are many and significant, presenting a promising outlook for your political future. There are even whispers that a candidate from your lake region may become Ruto’s deputy come 2027. However, amid the allure of these gains, you should reflect on how you aspire to be remembered in the annals of history.

Yours,

Muhoho Macharia, a believer of democracy.

— The writer is an Innovations Evangelist and a PhD Candidate; machariamuhoho@gmail.com