President William Ruto — and to some extent former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka — set the tone for what Kenyans should expect this year when the first spoke on the eve of New Year and the latter gave an interview to the Daily Nation.

In his speech, the President took a swipe at the Minority side, represented by Azimio coalition and its allies, arguing that its leaders were engaging in litigation primarily meant to sabotage his agenda for the country, notably on universal heath coverage and affordable housing.

The long and short of his Saturday night speech was that he was telling his critics he would adopt a bare-knuckle approach in his response to their activities. This was not very far from his mantra — mambo ni matatu — and his assertion that the sword he inherited from retired President Uhuru Kenyatta during 2022 transition was not a kitchen knife.

What his speech meant was that he would take on both his political critics, the people who file public interest litigation and judges in the coming year, signaling his determination, for all intents to push his political agenda by fire, by force.

The second significant announcement made in the last two days and which will have a bearing on national discourse is the umpteenth declaration by Kalonzo he would not be supporting Raila Odinga, the de facto leader of Azimio, come 2027.

It is worth remembering that Uhuru is the de jure leader of Azimio although he is not eligible to vie for the presidency. However, his forays into Ukambani earlier in the year could have sent a signal that he was willing to rally his troops to support Kalonzo come 2027. This would be significant in two ways.

First, the Kamba have never supported Uhuru in all the years he has vied for the presidency. They have always backed his opponents. The second is that if Uhuru were to support Kalonzo to be on the ballot, this would have far-reaching implications for Raila, who enjoyed his backing ahead of last year’s election.

This could shape Raila’s narrative in 2027 and it is significant that among the major political players his voice has been most muted in the last few days. That is not to mean that he is a man to be under-estimated when it comes to shaping political events in 2024.

The other person worth watching, and the less said about him for now the better, is former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga.

His brazen attempt to hold a prayer rally in Nyeri, considered the political home of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, was loaded with political meaning, and could imply that he is the tail that is seeking to wag the dog, not the other way round.

That the police ensured they scuttled his attempts also speaks volumes, implying that Gachagua is not keen to take any political prisoners and is unlikely to tolerate groupings that do not share his political outlook.

That Maina’s attempt to hold a press conference in Nairobi yesterday was also scuttled sends an ominous signal that the government is unwilling to entertain him or his backers, let alone give him space to prosecute his agenda. The only thing the government cannot do is wish him away given that the man is not acting at his own behest.

What all these mean is that 2024 will be a rather “interesting” year politically. The other point to watch will be western Kenya. The latest opinion poll by Infotrak suggests that President Ruto’s support has grown most in western Kenya.

This is both good and bad depending on where one stands politically. Bad for leaders like the Deputy President because it could mean that he no longer has exclusivity when it comes to bargaining in 2027, and good for leaders like the politically savvy National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, whose base in Bungoma and its ethnic diaspora is solid compared to say, that of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.

And whereas Mudavadi has the presidential face, Wetangula has the presidential muscle, which primes him to be the sixth. That is a man to watch in 2024 because he understands the science of pulling political strings and, by virtue of being Speaker, is third in line to the throne after Gachagua.

And Wetangula, if you listen to his sub-text, is critical of many things, but this needs no expounding on January 2024 since it will become self-evident as time unfolds.

Outside the political sphere, the other persons to watch will be the Chief Justice, Lady Justice Martha Koome, who has as many friends as she has enemies in positions of power, influence and authority.

It is to be expected that given the bad blood between the Judiciary and the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions, judges will push back against government-led litigations and be more sympathetic to what President Ruto called “vested interests”.

The CJ has the option of sinking with the Supreme Court into the morass of ignominy or swimming with the High Court and some sections of the Court of Appeal who have demonstrated their progressive credentials.

Finally, on issues of governance, two faces will be closely watched; that of Controller of Budget Margaret Nyakang’o — who has already fallen afoul with the current administration — and that of Auditor-General Nancy Gathungu, who has been baring her teeth more and more in the recent past, and who is more likely than not to bite rather than just bark in 2024.

These two, however, will need to work very closely with the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission, led currently by Bishop Dr David Oginde, because there is no doubt the commission knows much more than it has let out.

That means, with its support, the number of anti-corruption and abuse of office cases to be prosecuted in 2024 could go up to likely unprecedented levels for both political expediency as well as for genuine restitution.

Then there is the police and other security services. They, like judges, are critical to the war against corruption and can make or break a case depending on how their whims, and the suspects, direct them.

So the top leadership of all the National Police Service formations will be worth watching for the next 365, this being a leap year.

Mbugua is the outgoing Managing Editor of the People Daily.