The by-election in Isiolo South has been in the news not just due to the by-election but also due to the fact that there was an odd contest between a brother and a sister, Tubi Mohamed Tubi and Bina Tubi, to take up the seat that their father held before his death.

The result, a heavy defeat of Bina Tubi, has sparked concerns about whether the family feud will worsen or end in the aftermath.

Triumph of Mohammed Tubi

Mohamed Tubi, who contested on the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket, easily won, with a resounding vote of 7,352, as compared to 634 by Bina Tubi, who was running on a Jubilee Party ticket.

There was another candidate, Isaac Fayo, who lagged way behind. The outcomes not only illustrated the supremacy of Mohamed over her sister, Bina Tubi.

The rivalry between the two siblings was of national significance, as it was a battle between the family and political ambition.

The two candidates had the same political heritage, but their political affiliation and different strategies put the two in direct rivalry.

In the campaign, the two seemed to recognise the strange character of the competition, underlining that politics can at times override family relations and that the attention was on the constituents of Isiolo South.

The triumph solidifies Mohamed Tubi as the main heir to the political heritage of his father.

Bina Tubi’s defeat

In the case of Bina Tubi, the outcomes are a huge blow, which makes one question her future political ambitions. Although the official version of the story draws attention to the fact that the race was entirely political, the magnitude of the loss might have left certain tension without the official word.

Will there be reconciliation?

Moving forward, personal reconciliation and political pragmatism as a mixture of the two is likely to determine the way the sibling relationship is shaping up.

The Kenyan political culture usually permits family members to fight each other and settle down later to maintain the long-term influence and cohesion.

On the record, both brothers are supposed to focus on continuity, growth and togetherness, and the competition is supposed to be the normal democratic competition.

However, the fact that the residual resentment may remain cannot be discounted. In the event that Bina continues to be active in the political arena or in case the partisan differences escalate, there can be clashes in the future that will re-establish competition.

The Isiolo South contest gives the impression that the competition is about to reduce to a certain extent, with the brothers choosing to make peace in public and work out family and political manoeuvres behind the scenes.

Ruto’s political “Poka Game” in the by-elections

Apparently, Ruto and UDA have been seen to use family political sympathy votes in by-elections, which may bring electoral benefits. It may not be hyperbole to call this strategy a calculated game of poker.

In the by-election in the Banisa Constituency in 2025, after the death of sitting MP Kulow Maalim Hassan, UDA announced its intention to field his brother, Ahmed Maalim Hassan, to compete for the seat.

The sympathy factor, coupled with the political influence that the family had established in Banisa, was capitalised on by the campaign, leading to a resounding victory.

In a similar scenario, the Isiolo South by-election of 2026 saw Mohamed Tubi and Bina Tubi vying to occupy the role after their father passed away.

Finally, Ruto and UDA seem to use family sympathy votes during the by-election, which brings them an electoral advantage.