How United Opposition is repeating last year’s by-election mistakes in February 2026 polls
By Mabonga Makhanu, February 1, 2026As Kenya once again prepares for a fresh round of by-elections across Muminji, Evurore, and Kabras West wards, as well as Isiolo South Constituency, the united opposition appears determined to relearn old lessons the hard way.
If recent history is anything to go by, the opposition is walking straight into the same trap that humiliated it during the November 27, 2026, by-elections.
Instead of strategic coordination, it is once again opting for internal competition, ego battles, and last-minutewithdrawals,s a recipe that previously handed victory to candidates aligned with the state and the broad-based government.
The November losses were particularly embarrassing because of the bold political claims that preceded them.
The former deputy president had confidently branded himself the undisputed kingpin of the Mount Kenya region, only for the candidate he openly backed, the Democratic Party’s Newton Karish, to lose to UDA’s Leonard Wamuthende.
The defeat punctured the narrative of unquestioned regional dominance and exposed the opposition’s organisational weaknesses.
Opposition fielding multiple candidates
One glaring mistake during the 2025 by-elections was the decision by opposition parties to field multiple candidates under the same coalition umbrella.
Endlesss push-and-pull over zoning persisted until the eleventh hour, with some candidates withdrawing late and others refusing to step down altogether.
Despite the win in the Kisia East by-election, which was preceded by days of endless fights between DCP and DAP-K, it stood out as a textbook case of how disunity hands victory to opponents.
Fast forward to the February 26, 2026, by-elections, and little appears to have changed.
In Kabras West Ward, the by-election triggered by former MCA David Ndakwa’s successful bid for the Malava parliamentary seat has once again exposed opposition disarray.
Both DAP-K and the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) have fielded candidates—Nivah Musa and Bramwel Khaemba, respectively—against UDA’s Eliphas Shalakha. The outcome is predictable: a split opposition vote and a clear path for UDA to retain the seat.
UDA, unlike its rivals, is already on the ground. President William Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet has been leading sustained campaigns in the ward, while the opposition is still struggling to agree on who should fly the coalition flag.
Malava by-elections
This mirrors the Malava by-election chaos of 2025, where DCP’s Edgar Busiega and DAP-K’s Seth Panyako locked horns for months. Busiega’s last-minute withdrawal came too late to repair the damage, a factor analysts widely cited as decisive in the opposition’s loss.
Evurore ward byelection
In Evurore Ward, multiple parties within the united opposition have again fielded separate candidates.
The People’s Liberation Party (PLP), led by Martha Karua, has presented Joseph Njeru; the Democratic Party (DP), led by Justin Muturi, has fielded Albert Muchira Kigoro; while the broad-based government, through UDA, is fielding Albert Muratia.
Once again, the opposition seems allergic to zoning—a basic electoral strategy that could have maximised its chances against a well-oiled, state-backed machine.
Unless the opposition urgently rethinks its approach, the upcoming by-elections risk becoming a rerun of November’s embarrassment. Politics rewards unity, discipline, and timing.
Without these, the united opposition may soon discover that being united in name alone is not enough to win elections.