How 2025 by-elections will be the ultimate litmus test for Ruto’s leadership
By Kiprono Keileb, October 14, 2025The upcoming 2025 by-elections are shaping up to be more than just another round of voting; they are fast becoming a defining moment for President William Ruto’s leadership and political influence across the country.
After months of political tension, party meetings, and alliances being redrawn, the by-elections are now being seen as a mirror of Ruto’s influence since taking power in 2022. From the United Democratic Alliance’s (UDA) recent party primaries to the ongoing talks with other political leaders, everything points to a contest that could determine who truly controls Kenya’s political heartbeat.
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UDA’s strategy and the Gideon Moi factor
UDA’s recent primaries were largely smooth, with only a few complaints from aspirants about interference. There were no claims of vote rigging or stolen results, something that marked a significant improvement from the chaotic nominations seen in past elections. This has given Ruto’s party a stronger image of order and internal democracy, a key factor as it prepares for the by-elections.
One of the biggest political moves ahead of the polls was President Ruto’s meeting with former Baringo Senator Gideon Moi. The meeting led to Gideon stepping down from the senatorial race, a decision widely interpreted as a strategic gesture to boost UDA’s chances in the region. It also signalled a broader message of unity among Rift Valley leaders, as Ruto seeks to consolidate support in his home turf while avoiding political splits that could cost his party key seats.
At the same time, UDA Secretary General Cleophas Malala has been on the ground leading intense mobilisation drives, focusing on identifying candidates most likely to win. His push aims to ensure that UDA retains its dominance, especially in counties where the opposition is regrouping.
Gen Z protests and what’s at stake
Beyond party politics, the by-elections will also test the mood of Kenya’s younger generation. During the Gen Z protests earlier this year, many youths openly expressed dissatisfaction with the government, criticising corruption, high taxation, and the cost of living.
The upcoming vote will show whether that anger will translate into real political change at the ballot. If the youth turn out to vote against UDA candidates, it will signal a growing rejection of the current leadership. But if they stay home or split their votes, it may suggest that the online outrage has not yet matured into organised political power.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Coalition Party (DCP), led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, is also making aggressive moves. The party is determined to win its first seats in Parliament and county assemblies since its formation after the 2022 General Election. Gachagua even cut short his official visit to the United States to focus on these crucial by-elections, a clear sign of the high political stakes involved.
Other parties, including those allied to UDA under the broad-based government, have also fielded their candidates. In some areas, compromises have been made to ensure one strong contender represents the coalition, minimising vote splitting.
As the campaigns gain momentum, the by-elections 2025 are no longer just local contests; they have become a national test of loyalty, strategy, and political strength. For Ruto, these by-elections are not just about numbers; they’re about trust, perception, and the balance of power heading into 2027. The results will paint a clear picture of whether Kenyans still believe in his message or whether the political tide is quietly shifting against him.