Last week saw a major flare-up in the conflict in Goma in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), pitting the M23 rebels and the Rwanda army against the DRC army backed by the Southern African Development Community Mission in DRC (SAMIDRC).

The question is why, after a relative period of calm, the M23 is marching again. Why now?

For the first time, presidents have openly clashed. There was a nasty exchange between Rwandan President Paul Kagame, and his South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa.

Further, the toxic relationships were manifested when DRC President Felix Tshisekedi snubbed a virtual meeting of heads of the East African Community (EAC) called by Kenyan President William Ruto in favour of the one called in Harare by Zimbabwean leader Emmerson Mnangagwa.

The EAC and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) are both trying to broker peace from vastly differing standpoints. EAC, which bestrides a very volatile region, prefers dialogue, while SADC is ready to engage militarily. Tshisekedi wants a military victory, thus his preference for the SADC initiative.

This flare-up has brought home the moment of truth for Kagame. For the first time, he has been openly called out by the international community as the aggressor. The United Nations, the United States, China and the European Union have all called on him to leave DRC. France sent its envoy to both Kinshasa and Kigali to meet both heads of state. It then issued a statement demanding Kagame leave the territory of DRC “immediately”, proclaiming that DRC’s territorial integrity was “not up for negotiation”. Harsh words indeed.

Kagame lashed out, telling off Ramaphosa in very unsavoury language. He threatened that he was ready to take on South Africa militarily any time. Ramaphosa refused to be drawn into a public spat, despite the fact that 13 of his soldiers had been killed during the rebel offensive in Goma.

Kagame needs to be very circumspect. South Africa (SA) is not DRC. SA has, alongside Egypt and Algeria, Africa’s strongest army. Rwanda is not even rated among the top 10 in Africa. SA has 150,000 fighting troops, compared with Rwanda’s 35,000. SA’s annual military budget is $4.3 billion, against Rwanda’s $120 million.

SA’s air force comprises over 150 aircraft, including 20 modern fighter jets and attack helicopters. Rwanda’s air force fleet comprises 30 aircraft. It has no fighter jet.

This war would be over even before it began. A bit of humility might stand Kagame in much better stead.

Kagame is now completely isolated. SA is now a declared enemy, while Tshisekedi has vowed a military response. The international community is now in unison on Rwanda. Opening fights on all these fronts will end badly for Kagame.

The only silver lining in this cloud is that both EAC and SADC are now in accord that the two bodies must jointly sort out this matter. A negotiated peace deal is the only way out,  principally to stop any more deaths from the ongoing raging conflict.

The peace deal should give amnesty to all M23 rebels who lay down their arms, and a path towards reintegration back to society. All militia in eastern DRC should be forcefully disarmed, and the DRC army should deploy throughout the country to provide security for people to restart their lives. Institute joint border patrols between Rwanda and DRC armies, or a demilitarised zone, to take care of Kagame’s anxieties over border infiltration from DRC.

Tshisekedi’s administration must establish government structures across eastern DRC to develop the region.

Lastly, the peace deal must give Kagame a face-saving way out of this morass. While destroying the remnants of the FDLR Hutu extremists who committed genocide in Rwanda a full 30 years ago and fled across the border might have been plausible before, it’s incredulous that a ragtag militia is still surviving in a region heavily infested with M23 Tutsi rebels and the Rwandese army. That narrative is jaded. It is time to turn a new page in DRC.

— gathukara@gmail.com