Kenya is in the middle of an economic tempest.  Government has delayed staff salaries for the first time ever. County disbursement delays have stretched four months. The shilling has been steadily depreciating for months now. There is a shortage and hoarding of dollars in the market, spawning a black market.

The cost of living has remained high, so far defying the Government’s measures to bring it down. Worse, Kenya is increasingly debt distressed. The country’s macroeconomic stability is tipping dangerously, usually the precursor to an economic meltdown.

All this in the middle of both a noisy political transition that has spooked investors and created market instability, as well as transforming the economic mosaic from the top down approach that has ruled for 60 years, to a people-centric bottom up approach.

Managing this transition are new mandarins at the Treasury- Cabinet Secretary, Prof. Njuguna Ndungu, Principal Secretary, Dr Chris Kiptoo, and Chairman of President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Dr David Ndii. They are having a very steep learning curve. From their utterances, one gets the sense that they sometimes feel overwhelmed.

In the midst of all these, one man has stood out like a beacon in the economy- Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) governor, Dr Patrick Njoroge. His cool demeanour, unflappable manner, and speaking his “truths’ without rancour or jingoism has probably been a most critical factor in keeping the ship on an even keel in this tempest. He has been the captain of this ship, and has been a steady, predictable and dependable hand as the country maneuvers the heavy storms.

Njoroge’s term ends on June 17, 2023. His term ends together with that of the chairman of the CBK Board, Mohammed Nyaoga, and the second deputy governor, Sheila M’Mbijjiwe. In June, the entire CBK leadership exits. At the helm will be left one deputy governor, Susan Koech, who is two months old.

This is the situation. It will take time to replace the outgoing officials, so the CBK will be running on one engine instead of four. The new officials, once recruited, will join the deputy governor who has just been appointed. All these officials will, necessarily, be fumbling all over themselves because of a steep learning curve – as the tempest rages! Not to talk about taking months to gel into a team.

You do not change the tried and tested captain of a ship in the middle of a storm.

Right now, the most critical ingredient the economy needs is confidence. Confidence that there will not be any drastic policy changes especially at the CBK that cause upheavals in the economy. And confidence that the firm hand that has been the signature of Prof Njoroge’s stewardship of monetary policy will not be changed especially because of the monetary pressures the Government is embroiled in. Replacing Dr Njoroge now will only increase the anxiety and unpredictability in an economy that is desperately looking for any anchor to calm it.

Njoroge should be given a year to see out this storm. Once the economy is back in calmer waters, all these drastic changes can then be made, and the inevitable learning mistakes of the incoming team will not threaten the ship.

Further, the newly recruited deputy governors will have been mentored for a year by an experienced hand, and will both have capacity to take over seamlessly- whether the storm has passed, or the ship is still in choppy waters.  More than anything else, it will send a powerful message to the local and international business community and international partners of the Government’s commitment to stability, and fiscal discipline.

Njoroge is a battle hardened general. He steered the country through a banking crisis days into his appointment,  the Covid pandemic that upended the economy, and two highly charged elections in 2017 and 2022. His stewardship is sorely needed now that Kenya is facing storms on several fronts.

The most prudent thing for the Government to do is extend  Njoroge’s term for one year.

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