Will the Gen Z clamour expose Raila’s waning influence?
By Albert Kasembeli, June 24, 2025As Kenya braces for the first anniversary of the June 25, 2024, Anti-Finance Bill protests, political tension is reaching fever pitch, with ODM leader Raila Odinga and his party’s so-called “experts” facing a defining moment that could reshape their influence in President William Ruto’s administration.
Following last year’s violent protests — which saw more than 60 protesters, mostly Gen-Zs, killed by police bullets — Ruto made a strategic move to absorb Raila into a “broad-based government”, appointing several ODM figures to key Cabinet positions.
The unspoken agreement was clear: Raila’s inclusion was meant to pacify a furious youth-led movement that had rattled the Kenya Kwanza administration. His historical influence as the face of opposition politics, coupled with his strong showing in the 2022 elections, made him the ideal political shock absorber.
For a while, the plan seemed to work. The protests dwindled, and the streets fell silent. But beneath the surface, resentment simmered. Many youths, particularly the Gen-Z, viewed Raila’s decision to join Ruto’s regime as a betrayal, accusing him of opportunism while victims of police brutality remained unaccounted for.
Does Raila still hold sway?
Now, as activists and ordinary citizens prepare to mark the first anniversary of the bloody protests, all eyes are on Raila and his ODM allies in government.
The planned demonstrations will serve as a critical gauge of whether he still commands the street mobilisation power he once did – or whether his influence has waned in the past year.
Diminished value
More critically, his appointees in Ruto’s Cabinet are ‘sweating’. If the protests erupt with the same intensity as last year, it will expose their diminished political value, raising questions about their continued relevance in government.
A senior ODM MP, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted: “There is real fear in our camp. If the protests explode, Ruto might see us as deadweight. Our bargaining power hinges on Raila’s ability to control the streets – if that’s gone, so is our leverage.”
The Gen-Z movement, which operates without a central leadership, has repeatedly rejected attempts by politicians to hijack their cause. The small-scale protests witnessed earlier this week, despite government warnings, suggest that the youth remain defiant, unimpressed by Raila’s political manoeuvres.
Cabinet reshuffle
This presents a nightmare for the ODM leader and his allies in government: What if the protests proceed without their blessing? What if they are massive, chaotic, and uncontrollable?
Sources within State House indicate that President Ruto is watching closely. If the protests remain subdued, the “broad-based government” arrangement may hold.
But if they escalate, a Cabinet reshuffle targeting ODM figures could be imminent.
A senior Kenya Kwanza legislator and insider revealed: “The president’s patience is thinning. If Raila can’t stop the protests, then what’s the point of keeping his people in government? They were brought in to stabilise the country – if they can’t deliver, they’ll be shown the door.”
National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula recently warned that the protests “could be messy, could be noisy, and could have casualties.”
His words underscore the high stakes at play.
Should the demonstrations turn violent, Kenya could plunge into political turmoil, forcing Ruto to make hard choices – including dismantling the power-sharing deal with Raila.
As June 25 approaches, three possible scenarios emerge. If turnout is low, Raila and ODM will claim they still control the streets, securing their positions in government, and if demonstrations escalate, Ruto may purge ODM allies, accusing them of failing to deliver stability.
A heavy-handed police response could trigger a fresh wave of unrest, further eroding public trust in both Raila and Ruto.
Whatever happens, Kenya’s political landscape is set for a seismic shift.
The outcome of June 25 will determine whether Raila’s gamble to join Ruto’s government pays off – or whether it marks the beginning of his irreversible decline.
For now, the nation holds its breath.