Why Ruto walks a political tightrope touring Matiang’i’s Gusii turf
By Aloys Michael, March 20, 2026A charged political atmosphere has swept across the Gusii region as President William Ruto prepares for a high-stakes tour of Kisii and Nyamira counties, even as the ground beneath him appears to be shifting ahead of the 2027 showdown.
The Head of State will camp in the region from March 29 to 31, 2026.
For years, the larger Gusii region was considered a reliable stronghold of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), with pockets of influence also courted by Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Today, however, the political chessboard looks markedly different. The region is fast coalescing around Jubilee Party deputy leader Fred Matiang’i, whose growing influence is unsettling both ODM and UDA operatives.
Matiang’i, already endorsed by Jubilee to run for president in 2027, is not merely conducting photo ops, as his growing political vote signals a calculated attempt to consolidate Gusii into a solid voting bloc that could anchor a broader opposition coalition.
Recent developments suggest that strategy is gaining traction. On November 27, 2025, pro-Matiang’i candidates swept all three by-elections in Nyamira’s Nyamaiya, Nyansiongo and Ekerenyo wards. The outcome sent shockwaves across the political divide, rattling ODM’s long-standing networks and exposing cracks within UDA’s local mobilisation efforts.
The momentum appears to be building. A growing list of leaders, including MPs Patrick Osero, Anthony Kibagendi, Obadia Barongo and Clive Gisairo, have openly declared support for Matiang’i, strengthening his foothold in the region.
Ruto’s headache
For the opposition, the calculus is to build strong regional bases before negotiating national power. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, now leading the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), depicted this approach during a recently concluded United Alternative Government tour.
“Mobilisation for bargaining edge must start with each principal’s base. Elaborate consultations in Mt Kenya led to the formation of DCP,” Gachagua said.
“It is only through a strong home base that one can negotiate presidential ambitions effectively. Mt Kenya is a unique voting bloc with interests only understood by its sons and daughters.”
Speaking in Keroka, Gachagua was even more direct in rallying the Gusii community behind Matiang’i.
“Mimi nataka tukubaliane; ndio mimi niende nitembeze Matiang’i Mlimani aende akutane na his cousin. Ndiyo watu wa Mlima wamuheshimu, lazima aheshimike hapa nyumbani. Sitaki mkubali watoto wadogo wakuje watusi Matiang’i,” he said.
His remarks came shortly after Matiang’i’s coronation as a Kisii elder and community spokesman, a symbolic endorsement that has further cemented his stature as the region’s emerging political kingpin.
It is this consolidation that now presents Ruto with one of his most delicate political tests yet. While such tours traditionally draw large crowds, former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara cautions that attendance does not always translate into political loyalty.
“I was telling them, Kisii is locked. Please believe us. But there were too many noisemakers out there. They kept shouting because they were eating at the table, saying their milk is from a funny cow, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) boss said.
Indeed, even within Ruto’s camp, there is a growing recognition that the terrain is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
Ground slippery
UDA allies, including South Mugirango MP Silvanus Osoro, have maintained a confident public posture.
Yet behind the scenes, some local leaders admit the region is becoming politically slippery for both UDA and ODM operatives.
Efforts to counter Matiang’i’s rise have intensified. Kisii Governor Simba Arati, once firmly aligned with broad-based, is now leading a coordinated push to rally support for Ruto’s re-election bid. Flanked by Education Cabinet Secretary Julius Ogamba and Osoro, Arati has called for unity under a development-focused agenda.
“We must speak with one voice as a region. Our strength lies in unity and in aligning ourselves with a leadership that can deliver tangible development,” Arati said.
Ogamba echoed the sentiment, urging residents to resist divisive political narratives.
“We must be strategic. Development comes from engagement and alignment, not isolation,” he said.
Osoro, for his part, framed the shifting alliances as part of the natural evolution of politics.
“Politics is dynamic, but unity is constant. In the end, we will all move in the same direction for the good of our people,” he said.
Yet despite these reassurances, the optics on the ground suggest a different reality. The recent opposition rallies in Gusii have drawn significant crowds, signalling a level of enthusiasm that pro-government efforts have struggled to match.
For President Ruto, the challenge is twofold: to retain relevance in a region where UDA has never fully taken root, and navigate the apparent erosion of ODM’s traditional dominance without a clear beneficiary until now.
If the current alignment holds, Gusii may no longer be a battleground of divided loyalties, but a consolidated bloc under a new political centre of gravity, one that could significantly reshape the national electoral matrix in 2027.