Why Luo Nyanza went mute amid Gen Z protests 

Once the unrelenting heart of anti-government protests, Luo Nyanza is witnessing a striking but silent shift. 

Streets that used to echo with chants and tear gas canisters now hum with calm. 

Kisumu’s Kondele, Kachok, Kondele, and the bus park, as well as Migori and other perennial hotspots of political unrest, are today conspicuously silent, even as Gen Z protests surge across the country. 

Gone are the days when Raila Odinga’s call to protest would see his strongholds descend into chaos.

Roads would be barricaded with burning tyres and stones, police would unleash volleys of tear gas, and a fog of unrest would linger for days.  

But this time, when youth-led demonstrations choke Nairobi, Nakuru, Mombasa, and other parts of the country on Monday, July 7, 2025, counties like Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori remain largely unmoved. 

Subdued atmosphere 

One year after the dramatic June 25, 2024, protests, Kondele, a neighbourhood long synonymous with political defiance and fiery street action, conspicuously remained calm and businesslike, offering a stark contrast to its turbulent past. 

Gone were the echoes of chanting demonstrators, smoke-filled streets, and clashes with anti-riot police. Instead, life moved on as usual.

The subdued atmosphere marked a notable shift for a region that has, for decades, carried the reputation of being a protest flashpoint, particularly during periods of political discontent. 

Some locals say the region is simply taking a much-needed break.

They argue that it is now time for their region to take a rest after suffocating under a haze of tear gas to allow them to sit back, relax, and enjoy the fruits of broad-based government. 

“When Raila used to mobilise people to protest against corruption, bad governance, and injustices visited upon Kenyans by the government, some regions were mocking us and calling us names,” says Derick Onyango from Gem, Siaya. 

“They were describing Raila as yule jamaa wa maandamano na kurusha mawe. Now that Raila is enjoying the fruits of power, let Baba relax.”  

‘Strategi silence’ 

But governance expert Prof Fred Ogola offers a different interpretation. He believes the silence is strategic—not a sign of apathy, but of shifting tactics. 

“They don’t want to antagonise Raila, even if many no longer agree with him,” Ogola says. “They’re muting public dissent not because they support the government, but because they are waiting for the right time—and that time is the ballot.” 

“The region has had one leader over a long period of time, and they don’t want to antagonise him, though they are not with him. They are not with Raila, but they don’t want to antagonise him. So, how come when Raila goes to the public, they don’t want to hear his stories?” says Ogola  

“During Ojwang’s burial, we saw the youth carry the body to Mawego police station and raze the station. So that one shows they are not with Raila, but they don’t want to antagonise him.” 

Ogola, who has been conducting civic education across Nyanza, says the new form of protest is quiet, calculated, and centred on voter registration.

“Instead of burning what they built, they are preparing to speak with their votes. The church is also involved. Letters are being sent, and sermons are shifting. People are being told, Your power is not in maandamano; it’s at the polling station.” 

‘Raila relevance ‘waning’ 

Ogola says the assumption that Nyanza is calm because Raila is “eating” in government is simplistic.

In his view, Raila’s relevance is waning—not because he betrayed the region, but because his symbolic role as the voice of resistance no longer resonates. 

“People used to see Raila as the opposition. Now he sounds like the system,” he explains. “When he talks, they think it’s Ruto speaking through him.” 

Ogola believes that a deep generational and symbolic shift is underway. He likens Raila’s diminishing influence to the Biblical Samson after Delilah cut his hair.  

“Raila no longer has the power he once did. When he shouts his famous ‘Haiyaaa,’ the crowds don’t respond as they used to. Some even shout back, ‘one term.’ His political might has been shaved.” 

Drawing from Greek mythology, Ogola compares Raila’s current political efforts to the punishment of Sisyphus—eternally rolling a boulder up a hill only to watch it roll back down. “It’s like a curse,” Ogola says. “Whatever he tries now just doesn’t move people anymore.” 

Raila’s ‘last laugh’ 

But not everyone agrees that Raila’s influence is fading. Ayub Mwangi, a political communications expert, says the ODM leader still holds sway.

“Luo Nyanza is Raila, and Raila is Luo Nyanza. If he tells them to take to the streets tomorrow, they will.” 

Mwangi believes the region’s silence is driven more by vindication than fatigue. 

While agreeing with Raila’s time-to-eat narrative, Mwangi says the current lull in Luo Nyanza in the wake of Gen Z-led protests is a typical case of the “Who is laughing now?” attitude among Raila’s flock in the region. 

“Because they are saying, ‘You Mt Kenya people, you rejected Raila. You [elected] Ruto, and then he kicked you out of government. Now see who is laughing now. So it is a see-who-is-laughing-now kind of attitude,” explains Mwangi. 

“It’s written everywhere, even on social media. There is that element of who is laughing now attitude that is keeping them away from the protests. Because it makes them feel that it’s a payback to the Mount Kenya region, which rejected Raila for Ruto,” explains Mwangi. 

Political weathervane 

Fred Ogweno, executive director of the Inter-Regional Peace Network, agrees that Raila remains the region’s political weathervane.

“ODM is Raila, and Raila is ODM. If he ends ties with Ruto and calls for protests, you’ll see Nyanza back on the streets the next morning.” 

Ogweno says it is not just about Nyanza. ODM strongholds in Nairobi, like Kibra and Baba Dogo, have also remained calm, and for the same reason.

“The calm you’re seeing is because Raila has not issued a signal.” 

According to Ogweno, the Gen Z movement that began as a leaderless protest has evolved. “It was once a spontaneous uprising driven by vision and anger.

But now, political figures are trying to co-opt it. That changes the energy.” 

Despite the quiet, Nyanza is watching, waiting, and preparing. Ogola warns against mistaking silence for surrender.

“They haven’t gone to Ruto. They’re just waiting for a new leader. And when that leader emerges, they’ll have a direction.” 

Until then, he says the region is recalibrating. It’s no longer about street protests and running battles.

It’s about the long game: strategy, voter mobilisation, and reclaiming political relevance through the ballot box. 

And when that time comes, Ogola warns that the silence may break with a louder roar than ever before. 

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